Glaring flaw in the reasoning / mathematics, if you can even call em that. And if it doesn't add up, it just plain doesn't add up. No Don Donaldion genius required to figure that one out. "THE ATLANTIC Trump’s Tariffs Are Designed to Backfire Instead of leading to reduced trade barriers, the new global tariff plan is all but guaranteed to raise them. According to President Donald Trump, April 2, 2025—the day he unveiled his executive order implementing global tariffs—will be remembered as a turning point in American history. He might be right. Unfortunately, April 2 is more likely to be remembered as a fiasco—alongside October 24, 1929 (the stock-market crash that kicked off the Great Depression), and September 15, 2008 (the collapse of Lehman Brothers)—than as the beginning of a new era of American prosperity. The stated rationale behind Trump’s new “reciprocal tariffs” has a more coherent internal logic than Trump’s previous tariff maneuvers. (Stated, as we will see, is the key word.) The idea is that other countries have unfairly advantaged their own industries at the expense of America’s, both through tariffs and through methods such as currency manipulation and subsidies to domestic firms. To solve the problem, the U.S. will now tax imports from nearly every country on the planet, supposedly in proportion to the barriers that those countries place on American goods. The goal, according to senior administration officials, is to pressure other countries into removing their trade barriers, at which point the U.S. will drop its own. In his Rose Garden speech announcing the tariff order, Trump demanded that foreign countries “terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers,” and “don’t manipulate your currencies” if they hoped to get a reprieve from tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has even argued that many of the new tariffs won’t ever need to go into effect, because other countries will be so quick to comply. In this telling, Trump’s reciprocal measures represent the tariff to end all tariffs, paving the road to a system of genuinely free trade and a return to American industrial dominance. But the logical consistency, such as it is, is only internal. When the new tariffs come into contact with external reality, they are likely to produce the exact opposite of the intended outcome. Most obviously, the tariffs don’t appear to be based on actual trade barriers, which undermines their entire justification. Contrary to White House messaging, the formula for determining the new rates turns out to have been based simply on the dollar value of goods the U.S. imports from a given country relative to how much it exports. The administration took the difference between the two numbers, divided it by each country’s total exports, then divided that total in half, and slapped an import tax on countries at that rate. The theoretically reciprocal tariffs are not, in fact, reciprocal. The result is that there is no clear or obvious path that countries could take to get those tariffs removed even if they wanted to. Countries can remove all of their trade restrictions and still run a trade surplus. South Korea, Mexico, and Canada, for example, export more to us than they import from us despite imposing virtually no trade barriers. As The New York Times reported, “Trump’s decision to put a 32 percent tariff on Switzerland stunned politicians and business leaders in the Alpine country. Switzerland has an open trade policy and recently abolished all industrial tariffs, including on goods from the United States, which is also its largest export market.” Even if other countries did figure out ways to shrink their trade imbalances with the U.S., that still wouldn’t necessarily lead to a reprieve: Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs even on countries, like Brazil, that import more from America than they export to it. The only thing the White House has made clear is that any decision to remove or raise tariffs will be made by Trump himself." cont.... https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-tariff-theory-reality/682279/?utm_campaign=one-story-to-read-today&utm_content=20250403&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&lctg=67c59ee48eb0f05dee065b27&utm_term=One Story to Read Today Simply sad complete and utter nonsense, and just plain crap no one needed. Lets hope theres some grownups left in the room who can still turn this around.
Trying to remain open without a political bias, it's difficult to imagine how this extraordinary policy will work in such a short time period (less than 4 years). Clearly, US and foreign businesses will not move their manufacturing to the US if they aren't already here. As it's been said many times, it takes 2-3 years to move/build a plant. If the next administration reverses these Trump policies, it will have been an absolute waste of resources. Even with a 30% import tariff, US labor cost alone would negate the benefit of moving to the US. Perhaps the Trump administration believes the US is more resilient than most other nations based on their trade deficit. If others are hurt more, they will make it easier for US goods through to eliminate tariffs? Is this because Trump believes there's greater demand for US goods abroad than exists today? Let's look at Harley... https://www.statista.com/statistics/252220/worldwide-motorcycle-retail-sales-of-harley-davidson/ Demand is essentially dropping in the US and steady abroad. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...igures-in-some-countries-yhuIF1ACJzilV9tniftk They are among the most expensive bikes to buy with a style that caters to a small subset of motorcycle riders. Would bikers switch to Harley if taxes on these and competitors dropped by 50%? Very unlikely. More large motorcycles would be sold, but Harley wouldn't take market share from others. In fact, Harleys are cheaper to buy in the US precisely because they are subsidized by higher priced Harley sold abroad. If lower sales abroad were to drop, Harley would go out of business in the US unless they significantly raised their prices to US consumers. What are the US top 5 exports? 1. Refined Petroleum 2. Aircrafts 3. Integrated Circuits 4. Medical Instruments 5. Pharmaceuticals The US exports more goods to Canada and Mexico than the next 10 countries combined. The US represents 76% of Canada's exports and 78% of Mexico's. Who's to lose most in a global trade war? The US, Canada and Mexico. But more importantly, it will rearrange global trade. Airbus may sell more of its planes than Boeing. Europe will increase its trade with greater Asia at the expense of US goods. Canada and Mexico will expand trade efforts with other nations to lower their US dependency. What does the US gain? It's primarily a consumer nation that has outsourced its production to China and other cheaper to make nations for its own consumers. Apple's primary market is the US and, like Harley, it heavily depends on US consumers to drive revenues. No country specifically targets Apple products for higher tariffs or taxes, it's just that Apple products compete with a greater ecosystem of products not found in the US and they are sold at a premium abroad to subsidize lower prices in the US. I have yet to find a compelling reason for this trade war created by the Trump Administration. Just like Tesla is suffering from an anti Musk backlash in Europe and the US, US products sold abroad will suffer from consumer reactions.
Exactly. the business model of the US is to buy low-cost goods from the world and to sell them high-value services. There is no master plan. Trump is simply killing the goose that laid the golden eggs.
yep. "ABC NEWS Trump's tariffs decreased U.S. employment by 166,000 jobs, according to a study from the nonprofit Tax Foundation, which cited an increase in import costs for U.S. employers. A separate study from the U.S.-China Business Council estimated up to nearly 250,000 lost jobs as a result of the tariffs. The manufacturing sector drew special attention from Trump, who touted the potential for rejuvenating U.S. production. However, in 2019, the Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs had led to a 1.4% decline in manufacturing employment, which amounts to roughly 175,000 missing jobs that would've otherwise been created in the absence of the policy, Katheryn Russ, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis, told ABC News. The primary reason for the job losses, experts said, owes to the increased costs for materials imported by U.S. firms, which in many cases raised prices to make up for the shortfall and in turn lost out on business. Retaliatory tariffs, which raised the prices paid for U.S. exports, also negatively impacted jobs, the experts added." https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-trade-war-triggered-job-gains-happen/story?id=107601458
"BUSINESS INSIDER Trump's trade war is already leading to layoffs and pain for American businesses President Donald Trump is waging a trade war on many fronts, with tariffs on steel, aluminum, Chinese goods, and more. While Trump argues that the tariffs will make the US economy stronger, so far the duties are leading to layoffs. Small businesses across the US are grappling with the increased cost of goods, and some of them are resorting to layoffs to save money. President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum, and some Chinese products have started pushing up prices for many US companies that rely on those items to create final products, forcing many firms to make tough decisions about where to cut costs. Many large companies have for now decided to pass on those costs to consumers or absorb the losses into their profit margins. But some smaller US businesses have been forced to cut labor costs to offset the higher amounts they're paying for parts. From Wisconsin to South Carolina, small businesses are starting to lay off employees, and they're citing Trump's tariffs. Many firms have warned that the worst is yet to come. Some examples: Mid-Continental Nail, the largest US nail producer, laid off 130 workers after steel prices jumped. One of its plant managers said the entire business could shut down over the next few months. Element Electronics, a TV manufacturer, plans to lay off 127 workers from its South Carolina factory as "a result of the new tariffs that were recently and unexpectedly imposed on many goods imported from China." Brinly-Hardy, an Indiana-based maker of lawn-care equipment, laid off 75 workers. "We are collateral damage in this effort," Jane Hardy, the company's CEO, told The Washington Post. The Tampa Bay Times said in April that it was forced to lay off 50 people because of a tariff on Canadian newsprint. Other newspapers in small communities, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan's hometown paper in Janesville, Wisconsin, have also been forced to lay off staff. Some businesses, such as Moog Music, which manufactures electronic musical instruments, have not taken action but have warned that the tariffs could eventually lead to layoffs. Other small businesses have furloughed workers or paused expansion plans while they wait and see how the trade fights play out. Small operators in industries from lobster fishing to metal shapers have curtailed workers' hours. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-trade-war-layoffs-business-losses-2018-8?op=1 Most of the US supply chain is plain dependent on cheap labor across the border. Even IF you could produce everything here - which would take ages if even at all possible - that would effectively translate into way higher end prices for the consumer just to compensate for higher US wages, meaning that demand would go right down. People just wouldn't and indeed couldn't afford to pay so much more with a large portion of the US population living paycheck to paycheck as is even now with so much cheap stuff still available. Cars dont buy cars. People do. If they don't have a job... Who's gonna buy the cars ???
Did any economists and professional economic scholars sit down with this administration to really do the math and see where this actually beneficial to our future economic growth or did he just wake up and announce tarriffs ??????????
I'm still waiting for the "see, see that's why the tariffs!".... Do you believe that will come and, if so, when? Trump's time is 4 years. Here's one positive outlook to mesure this Administration against : Trump’s ‘Trillions’ Number Is Right: Tariffs Could Bring in $865 Billion in Annual Taxes, Rocketing Revenues 843% – But at What Cost? https://flip.it/.jlNjo The most positive, or at least interesting, aspects of these measures are the consequences. It's unprecedented in modern history and should have economists in near orgasm from the predictions and resulting repercussions.
Trumps insane broad tariffs is a mafia like shakedown, its extortion to become more of the full on dictator he is trying to become. Bend the knee to him & kiss the ring & maybe he will retract some or all of your tariffs. Trump has been using the autocrat playbook going after all the things that makes a democracy strong - the media, organized labor, universities, judges & law firms, & large private corps while forcing the U.S. tech oligarchs to bend the knee to him. This is not a Trump 2.0 revenge tour, it's Putin 2.0 on steroids.