https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/466616-trump-faces-greater-electoral-challenge-than-impeachment Trump faces greater electoral challenge than impeachment It is no secret that President Trump won the White House in the 2016 election by turning out his base and by appealing to white working class voters, mainly across midwestern states, that were once a part of the Democratic coalition. While his core base of supporters remains solid, shifts in the demographic makeup of the electorate point to potentially serious challenges for his 2020 reelection campaign. The United States is becoming more diverse. Populations of racial and ethnic minorities are growing faster than whites, and one of the fastest growing groups consists of those who identify as mixed race. Generally, racial and ethnic groups vote homogeneously, and any group sizably growing or shrinking will have an electoral impact on both parties. In 2016, Pew Research Center conducted a survey examining the racial profile of Democratic and Republican voters. Republican voters were notably homogenous, with 86 percent identifying as white, 6 percent identifying as Hispanic, 5 percent as mixed race, and just 2 percent as black. Democratic voters were markedly more diverse, with 57 percent identifying as white, 21 percent identifying as black, 12 percent as Hispanic, 5 percent as mixed race, and 3 percent as Asian. In only a few years, demographics have shifted, with the most substantive changes occurring among Hispanics, a particularly politicized group. Indeed, a record 32 million Hispanic voters will be eligible to vote next year, a number that has surged 20 percent since the 2016 election. The 2020 election will mark the first time Hispanics constitute the largest voting minority, accounting for just over 13 percent of eligible voters, according to a Pew Research Center survey this year. The census projects that the national population is diversifying, and that the only demographic group projected to decline in population is whites, who were estimated to decrease from 62 percent in 2014 to 44 percent in 2016. Republicans, and specifically the Trump reelection campaign, will experience the consequences of this demographic shift. This trend drastically limits their ability to grow their voting base and appeal to an increasingly diverse general electorate, given the stance of the president on immigration and his hateful rhetoric towards minorities. Moreover, these national demographic shifts are even more pronounced in battleground states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, which spells even greater electoral trouble for the president. Notably, down in Florida, where a constitutional amendment was recently passed to restore voting rights to more than one million felons, the voting demographics of the state have now fundamentally shifted in numerous ways. The majority of the voting age population under 70 years of age are people of color, and minority groups have grown by 25 percent since 2010, according to census estimates released this year. This figure likely also includes more than 300,000 Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida in the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Maria. In a crucial swing state that Trump won by just 113,000 votes in 2016, his strategy of simply turning out his base will not be enough to win the state next year. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, many of these national trends hold true. The only racial group that decreased in population in the state are whites. Since 2010, the black population has grown 30 percent, and the Hispanic population has grown 35 percent, according to census data and the Population Research Institute at Pennsylvania State University. The census also noted that the coal mining town of Hazleton, whose residents were 95 percent white in 2000, now has a majority of Latinos, who comprise a striking 52 percent of the population. Pennsylvania is another critical swing state that Trump won by a narrow vote margin in 2016. Given these notable demographic shifts, strategies his campaign and Republicans successfully employed in 2016 will likely not produce the same result in 2020. To achieve victory, Trump must do more than just pander to his base and focus on the sobering data which displays core demographic shifts that are simply not in his favor. He has proven to be adept at controlling the media narrative surrounding him, and I do not doubt that it will be difficult for Democrats to beat him next year. However, even if impeachment backfires on the Democrats politically, as I suspect it might, the realities embedded in the emerging population data illustrate a serious uphill battle for Trump to win reelection in 2020.
Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that Getty Trump is going to like this forecast. By ShawnLanglois Social-media editor President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t. He’s going to absolutely adore this one. According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close. In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming. “In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model,” the report said, “we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction.” Here’s Moody’s track record, including a 2016 adjustment for the turnout variable: Will it return to its winning ways? The team takes into account how consumers feel about their finances, the performance of the stock market SPX, +0.69% and their job prospects. Essentially, today, they’re feeling pretty good. “Under the current Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook, which does not forecast any recession, the 2020 election looks like Trump’s to lose,” the authors wrote. “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but, under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.” From the MarketWatch archives (August 2016): To professional economists, Trump isn’t even the second best candidate in the 2016 presidential election Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes. The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.
Zzzzzzz. If memory serves didn’t they say basically the same thing in 2016? More leftist propaganda. It’s gonna be fun watching you meltdown when Trump wins his second term.
That editorial was written by the same guy that said Obama was in trouble in 2012. Schoen warns W.H.: Don't back 'Occupy' By MJ LEE 10/18/2011 06:46 AM EDT Updated 10/18/2011 10:19 AM EDT Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Pollster Douglas Schoen is out with a warning for President Barack Obama: Supporting Occupy Wall Street could cost you a second-term. “President Obama and the Democratic leadership are making a critical error in embracing the Occupy Wall Street movement—and it may cost them the 2012 election,” Schoen said in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. The movement, which has spread beyond New York City over the last month, “reflects values that are dangerously out of touch with the broad mass of the American people—and particularly with swing voters who are largely independent and have been trending away from the president since the debate over health-care reform,” he wrote. In the op-ed, Schoen presents “findings” collected by his polling firm — what he touts is probably “the first systematic random sample of Occupy Wall Street opinion.” The numbers show that 52 percent of the Occupy protesters have “participated in a political movement before,” 98 percent said they would “support civil disobedience to achieve their goals,” while 31 percent said they would even “support violence to advance their agenda.” In addition, Schoen said “an overwhelming majority” of the protesters supported the president in 2008, but that now, only 44 percent of them approve of Obama and only 48 percent of them will vote for him again in 2012. All in all, these numbers demonstrate the fact that the protesters represent “an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence,” and that their common bond is “a deep commitment to left-wing policies,” Schoen said. He warned that the Occupiers are “a group of engaged progressives who are disillusioned with the capitalist system and have a distinct activist orientation,” — all reasons that could make the administration’s support for the movement “catastrophic for their party.” The Obama administration has indicated an increasing willingness to sympathize with the Occupy Wall Street protesters in recent weeks.
Since the 1940s every approval rating has nailed it.No president has won re election with an approvel rating below 49 or with a disapproval higher than approval. The moodys model is based on the economy,which no longer has the political value that it used to. When was the last time a president had a 40% approval rating with sub 4% unemployment? When was the last time a president lost The House by 10 million votes with sub 4% unemployment? When was the last time the majority of Americans wanted to impeach and remove a president with sub 4% unemployment? The economy didn't stop Trump from losing the House by 10 million votes,it didn't stop his approval ratings from being the worst ever for a first term president,its not stopping the majority of Americans from wanting him impeached and removed from office and it wont save him in 2020.
The current article is based on demographics though.Demographics made CA a sold blue state,brought Texas within 2.5 points for Dems when it used to be 25 points for The GOP,made VA blue,help Dems win an Arizona Senate seat etc,
I really hope this whole impeachment goes to trash in a senate, and we send Trump packing the right way next Nov.