I am beginning to doubt that any Democrat that can get through the nomination process will be able to beat Trump in 2020. Mark my words that Trump will successfully link the Democratic nominee with these repulsive Democrat sponsored late term abortion bills that just past in NY and proposed in Virginia. Every single Dem nominee thus far (correct me if I am wrong) has proposed Medicare for all. One of the largest voting blocks (if not the largest) which are people soon to be or currently over 65 already or will soon receive Medicare. Guess what Medicare for all means for them....less benefits. A center left Democrat could beat Trump but I highly doubt a center left candidate will be nominated. You thought the meltdowns were epic in 2016 when Trump won...just wait for 2020.
2018 popular vote for the House Democrats 60,727,598 Republicans 50,983,895 2018 popular vote for the Senate Democrats 53,044,160 Republicans 34,948,225 Democrats won the Senate races in Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Nevada,Virginia ,Minnesota ,Arizona and Ohio in 2018,the states that will decide 2020.Texas,GA and Fl were all within 2.5 points. The blue wall was back in 2018 and will be in 2020.For the first time in decades Dems have a shot at Texas,Georgia and Arizonas electoral votes as well. And lets not forget about Trump who lost by 3 million votes in 2016 and will lose by much more in 2020. CNN: Trump's Average Approval Rating Slips to 37 Percent President Donald Trump’s average approval rating, taken from five major polls, stands is 37 percent in January, according to CNN. On average, his disapproval rating is 57 percent. CNN averaged the poll results from Gallup, Pew Research Center, NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College, CBS News and its own survey. All the polls were taken in January. His average approval in late November toearly December was 41 percent. Fifty-onepercent disapproved at that time.
Popular vote does not win presidential elections and defeating an incumbent president is not easy to do. I am not arguing with your stats and the right candidate could take advantage of Trump. I just don't see that candidate that can become the nominee.
True but the EC wont overcome Obama or 2018 type popular vote marigins.2018 suggest things arent looking well for Trump in the EC eithier.Dems won statewide Senate races in Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Nevada,Virginia ,Minnesota ,Arizona and Ohio.Dems came within 2.5 points in Texas and Texas will be in play 2020.Florida allows ex felons to vote in 2020,that probably wins the democrats that state.
Funny you should mention felons voting in Florida. A guy I know just got his voting rights restored in Florida where I live and he is now a registered Republican. It will be interesting to see if turnout changes in Florida in 2020.
There were a lot more Democrat Senate incumbents up for election. Thus, more Democrats came out to vote for both House and Senate. Period.
Before ex felons were allowed to vote in Virginia Obama won Virginia by +4 and Hillary won Virginia by + 5.VA than allowed ex felons to vote than Northem won the VA governors race by + 9 in 2017 and Tim Kiane won the senate race in 2018 by + 15.