Triangular Arbitrage Question

Discussion in 'Forex' started by max_w, Nov 30, 2013.

  1. max_w

    max_w

    Say we have these bid/ask rates
    usd.cad 1.0613 1.06135
    eur.cad 1.4418 1.442
    eur.usd 1.3586 1.35865

    For fast execution you would buy at the ask and sell at the bid.

    You start with 100K
    Buy CAD and end up with 106135
    Sell CAD for EUR and end up with 73612.8450547926
    Buy USD with the EUR and end up with 100014.091933694

    That is a profit of $14.09. Ignore the rounding.

    So profit = (((units*a1) / b2) * a3) - units
    a1 = Ask for USD.CAD
    b2 = Bid for EUR.CAD
    a3 = Ask for EUR.USD

    Something is wrong because I end up loosing money. Also the synthetic bid ask rates are not off by much.

    USD.CAD 1.0612395113 1.0613476613
    EUR.CAD 1.44188218 1.4420031775
    EUR.USD 1.3585225667 1.3586470062

    Someone please tell me what I'm doing wrong.
     
  2. Show your fills so we can read the fill prices. You should make money based on the prices you showed.
     
  3. m22au

    m22au

    If you are a price-taker then you cannot buy CAD at 1.06135. You must buy at 1.0613.

    Sell USD/CAD at 1.0613 (selling 100,000 USD), receive 106,130 CAD

    If you are a price-taker then you sell CAD (buy EUR) at 1.442

    Buy EUR/CAD at 1.442 (selling 106,130 CAD), receive 73,599.16782 EUR

    If you are a price-taker then you buy USD at 1.3586

    Sell EUR/USD at 1.3586 (selling 73,599.16782 EUR), receive 99,991.829 USD
     
  4. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    I did the math and got the same answer as m22au.
     
  5. Did you answer a different question (as usual)?
     
  6. I believe you did not answer his question, but may have answered a question you thought he should ask.
     
  7. max_w

    max_w

    Thanks m22au. Actually you can buy at 1.06135 (I did it), but the problem is that I was multiplying instead of dividing. I get the loss now.

     
  8. It's nice to understand the relationships, but a complete waste of time to calc a triangular arb on your dealer's platform. It's how they maintain their pricing. For example, all of the crosses on IB's platform are derived by pricing the synthetic (two of three crosses necessary). Does anyone think they're going to find an arb within a single dealer?
     
  9. max_w

    max_w

    You are right. That would be the second step after getting the algorithm right.
     
  10. I am all for arb opportunities on dealer platforms and exploited Oanda's digitals and knockouts for a long time, but nobody is going to screw up the three-way.
     
    #10     Nov 30, 2013