OK so a new journal entry starts here. Hopefully I will be spared any soft solicitation here and not get too turned off by this. I'll try to post less but watch my spelling more and we will see how I do. I'm currently limiting my trading to gold. May add in some sliver. Seems like my calls in day trading and swing trading differ drastically. So here I will post my long term swings. this could be anywhere from a day to a month. Dont expect much action here as until I have expanded my trading there will only be a few opportunities that present themselves. So in this case, I will try to find some evidence of previous calls while I wait for another entry
I have tackled netflix in the past as I did gold. On July 29th, I posted http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3474681#post3474681 Netflix to me seems like it is trading in its long term trend though it has had a fast lower low i would still wait for it to go lower once it hits 240 I would start to short, On july 29th netflix was still on trend I know that pulling old post and selecting them is not fare. But I will do it anyways. In my head I know which trades were based on long term and which ones I had a good feeling for. In all honesty my exit on this trade would of been around the 117 level in hind sight. it was the only place we saw resistance after the fall begun.
That is the only concrete pick I see in my journal at this time, There are some good gold picks else where that I may share later on down the line, There was also a GE/coke pick I made but it is unclear if it hit my target price or not, But this is all in the past. Lets look ahead We have 3-4 entry scenarios, Each with with different risk to reward situations and each with different probabilities of success. Lets see how this lays out, I will try to place win loss based on 1 ounce of gold to keep things simple. __________________________________________ So now we wait for our target, should be this month.
Thanks to the fed we have just hit our target area of entry # 1 (this is not an entry I would take). There is some risk here of a small lose at this point. Gold is right now at 1637. Entry here would mean our stop would be around 1570 ! Breaking this key area Is not a disaster, it just means that we are no longer super bullish but we remain bullish with caution. Breaking this area would mean we can either go down or revert to our old trend. Not overtrading is a major issue I will have This post represents issues I am currently having at this point. But I will be patient.
some nice price action developing on the 1 min chart now at the 1641 area We are looking at the daily charts to trade so its all meaningless but couldnt help myself trying to find the low. Silver also following or leading for that matter. But in the grand scheme of things for our trade its all just noise that I really should not be watching note to self: stick to the plan ! wait.
gold @ 1643.60 Some nice free money given away. But we stay focused on the long term and dont see any positive price action there nor any intresting volume. lets see how the next few days play out. Cheers to all the day traders. I'd sit around and watch to see how things unfold for you but I gota run. Lets hope we hit a nice solid bottom today ! but only time will tell
Just got back to my charts. Short term traders should now be looking for a break out again. Keep an eye on silver to see if it breaks out here for some indication. any higher on silver would constitute a break out follow price action rules. As for gold Id probably take my profits now 1643.30 and re-enter on a break out. some may choose to hold and get out as soon as price action tells to do so (A lower low) But all in all it was a good day. Too bad im only looking at the day chart and have not yet found my entry. This little pull back up was an important one if it holds that would be a very good sign but that can take a few weeks or even months to see if it stays above this point. My entry will be once we get out of this triangle formation on the daily chart
Ok Here is a ruff idea of the triangle fomartion we are playing. Sorry its a 3 day chart. Again this is a ruff idea. but as you can see the last bar hit our line more or less and we are experiencing a bounce. A drop is very possible to the second line. AS mentioned there is an entry here but our stop loss would be at the lower line wish would be to high risk. instead we will keep our eye open for some nice price action. Our minute chart showed some resistance at these levels. But it was way too little. Lets wait for some more bars to develop. In the mean time we can have fun playing some intra day trades that I may keep track of separate from our long term buys and sells. This was not the intention but I get bored waiting around