For all those interested in the topic, starting this thread on the topic of trading the macro markets (commodities; currencies; stock indexes; bonds) via futures contracts in the framework of the current markets, with the "Ukraine Situation" dominating the headlines. The goal is to present thesis wrt/ forecasting likely moves as a result of this event, and "gaming" the odds of directional moves, timing, and amplitude. Perhaps we can all gain from other traders' observations &/or assist one another in talking through the likely reactions in the markets. So I'll start with my take on it: Last night we opened with an instant but modest risk-off move. No follow through in the Yen, S&P futures, Swiss Franc. The move in Crude thus far has had some legs, as has gold, and some other commodities. Observing only S&P futures & U.S. bonds, and the lack of follow through or fade shows some stability at these levels. That being said it seems the headline flow should most likely be negative for risk in the coming week, which for me sets up an interesting risk reward; yet the S&P really does look like it "wants" to go higher (yet again). Also on the horizon is a much anticipated monthly U.S. jobs number this Friday, that can easily wreck any open futures positions - The "wild card". So looking for a further risk-off move in the next few days... I have an eye toward selling the S&P futures around 1846, as that seems to be a level the S&P is being sold, with repeated tests of this level and subsequent approx 10 point downside range. I am not keen to go long bonds, but would rather look to short bonds at a much higher level if we get some serious risk-off for a few weeks. Similarly not keen of shorting Australian Dollar. Considering out of the money calls on either Yen or Swiss Franc to position cheaply for a spike in fear. Gold has too many cross-currents in its story to be of interest to me on the long side at these levels, with the potential for sellers to come in on any further up move. That's my take, looking forward to other traders' thesis &/or ideas Cheers
How about a hot industry etf , defense, ITA long and short the financials which have been underperformimg recently prior to Ukraine. A spread played for continued divergence, trending. ITA/XLF
I am now short S&P futures, not feeling entirely confident but I am biasing the downside as having good odds. Time horizon is this week, will be closed before Friday jobs number for sure. No particular profit target, will manage according to market action and news flow next few days. Will put in a buy order at 1815 for next 24 hrs to capture a fast gain if it it is offered in a very short time frame, and drop it lower if warranted at a later time... Very near term Yen or SF OTM options are simply too outrageously expensive to be worthwhile - Not cheap enough to justify going so way outside probable statistical range (absent of upside bias).