I am very uncomfortable to play the opening and I would welcome views from any serious fellow. I trade them occasional sometimes I gain big and sometimes I am killed!!!!! I make my entry relating the opening price to yesterdays close, pivot point and last 2-3 days action. That is not enough for me to feel comfortable and be consistently profitable so far. So most of the time I don't trade the first half hour and many times I wait mach longer time to make an entry I almost forgot, I don't trade futures yet, only stocks. Happiness to all of you Hamb
by openings I'm assuming you mean very early entries in the first few minutes of the day?? I used to try to play entries above 1m highs and lows w/ stops just the other side of the minute bar - and that was INSANE!! Too much volatility at first and more difficult to sense direction. Watch the opening gap and how futs move in relation to the gap - helps a bunch. Also must realize any strategy is a statistical play - going to have some winners and some losers. The reason why many traders make a good chunk of change before 10 a.m. is due to the their ability to thrive in the most volatile portion of the day. Not all traders are suited for this time of the day........ Swish
"Watch the opening gap and how futs move in relation to the gap - helps a bunch" Swiss, can you elaborate on that? Hamb
The opening is perhaps the best time to trade, and is when emotions are at their highest. I trade gaps with smaller exposure, and usually close out a large piece of a swing trade into the frenzy. 80% of the time the opening trend reverses between 9:50 and 10:10amET. Many traders get caught in that reversal and lose big money. If you're not comfortable at the open then sit on your hands, or trade smaller lots until your skin thickens and you get a feel for what's going on.
you said it exactly right. there is more momentum there, so things happen more drastically. that is EXACTLY why i only trade the opening/morning usually. here's the trick for the most part: be trading an index, and know the pivots. take your positions close to these pivots in the direction of resistence/support. remember, the opening is all about 'finding liquidity'. where are the orders? let's move this market, I've gotta make some $$ today! so once you understand this, you will see price not just 'swinging wildly against you'; no, instead you will see price bid up to the pivot, get defeated by sellers, and then make another quick push possibly to get defeated again....immediately take a short position and draw your line. that pivot is now your stop (well, just beyond it in the other direction of course), and ALSO your reversal if you are wrong. remember, price is gonna move, so if you set yourself up in the proper position, the 10 #'s will not only help you propel price in your direction, but not be as big of a deal since you have taken your position wisely with a stop on the other side of liquidity. the best you can do right now is just observe and observe. at 1030 look for a reversal, or at least a stop in momentum ....again at a pivot point. look to exit your morning position, and/or possibly initiate a new one in the opposite direction (the 1030-noon and beyond trades can take a long time to work, but they can be just as huge!) the rest of the day is fodder for the floor. the afternoon sometimes has institutional money coming in but to me its just not usually worth it unless i see a major move breaking out....definitely not countertrend entries like the morning.
personally I like to give the market 5-10 minutes to clear overnight orders prior to looking for trades.. my favorite timeframe to trade is thus 9:40 til 10:30 .. I'll look at entries for later in the day only if the nas composite is making a new 2-day high or low, which is infrequent.. usually, trading within the strongest sectors during the first hour produces the best volatility... having a precision trading system makes a big difference, eg expanded time and sales tickers, following the trin tick by tick etc.. ken
Do a search for Don's Openings in this site. Im sure after reading, youll find yourself more confident about being "on the right side" Start small and test.........Good Luck
The one thing that I see absent from this thread is the fact that a number of openings will have a different flavor based exclusively on positioning ahead of a 10:00 AM ET report. It's easy to forget about the reality when looking at intra-day bar charts after the fact, since the frenzy and illiquidity at the time of the release are always "smoothed" in hindsight. However, with smaller intra-day ranges I believe that trade location can be, at times, more difficult to come by ahead of a report since your location enables you to be positioned several handles away from the price as the reports are released. In recent times, there has been a tendency for price to oscillate in a tight range in the 15-25 minutes leading up to the report negating the ability to get the much needed "cushion" ahead of the news related price spikes...
I always like entering in the morning. Usually I wait five minutes or so and enter only if a previous day high or low is broken and keep very tight stops Nowadays I watch the market all day, but usually are done after 90 minutes. I have never been more profitable. I used to trade exactly opposite, first wait and see. But then I realised I am trying to predict the future and looking for the sure thing. Byy the time all things align, the move is over. Now I just enter on the break, keep my stops and stop worrying. Oh, yeah, if I had three losers in one day I quit. Then it just is not 'my kind' of day. Very simple, and works very well for me.