Thought I would do start this journal. Been away for a while journaling on a discord server but it would be good to get some interaction from "pure" price action traders. It's a bit of a longshot but perhaps DB or fortydraws or some of the other guys could comment. Will be posting some of the journal entries of the past few days one after the other to get populate the thread. Sep 22 EU Premarket Hourly has shifted momentum. Though the 15m swing high hasn't been breached, therefore the trend technically is still down, I'm not expecting any rejections to the downside to do much, at least until we hit R again. Line of least resistance for now is up and rejections will be taken that go in that direction. The successful rejection of the range MP to the upside confirms the current direction. Price opens in the middle of the premarket range, nothing to do here but wait to see what happens. Traders take it down, so we extend the MP and wait for price to retrace to that level. This happens but we don't see any serious selling activity, so we pass on the short. Buyers step in at a lower MP but we don't go long as this would now be countertrend and these have a tendency to fail. Price does make it all the way up to the previous MP though. Here we see buyers just give up and selling starts to step up. This is what we've been waiting for. We enter short and price just falls. Scale out at MFE. We then set the close out order at the ONL but traders start to act a bit funny at the lower MP. Sellers disappear and buyers are in. We close it out here. We would go long but wouldn't have time to manage the trade.
Sep 22 US Premarket Hourly working its way to PDH to continue the upward swing.15m forming a range at the previous swing point that started the retracement yesterday. Broke out of the downward swing during the EU session. How it unfolded. Price opens at the highs so even though all the major and minor movements are in sync we wait for a RET to get long. We get that shortly and price rejects the MP so we enter long here. Grindy action on the way up then we see sellers step in with some intent at the ONH and our line is broken. We stay in because of the overall trend and because we know that this kind of thing is normal at the highs. Price does look like it's going to continue up as the rally after the break supersedes the MAE but we move our stop to the low just in case. Traders reverse course and we're out. Bounce above previous R but we don't really see any serious buying happening so we sit still. Another line break at the ONH with serious selling. Rally again supersedes the MAE but price rejects right at the ONH, and it's a lower high. We enter short but scratch the first trade when we see some buying activity, which would validate the MAE warning. Traders however again quickly reverse course, so we re-enter the short. We exit completely at the MP and call it here.
Sep 25 EU Premarket. Weekly: unchanged. Daily: had a bit of a retrace but still bullish. If it re-enters the channel then we could see it fall until the MP of the channel which is about 85-87, depending on when that happens. Hourly: A bit more interesting here. Price refused to drop below 88.37, so the area between 88.37 and 88.97 is now a potential support area. Traders also refused to go above 91.33 so the area between 91.33 and 91.07 is now a potential resistance area. The midpoint of this chop area is also the same midpoint as the previous down move so that's interesting.. 15m: Price has also further compressed here and formed potential S/R denoted by the yellow box. We've marked the MP and the edges. 5m: Some more price compression here as we have a premarket range and price is currently in the middle of it. Range and MP marked. Price opens as range R was rejected and pushes down for a little bit before buyers step in and push it back up to R. Sellers come in and push price all the way back to the MP. Range is narrow, and price isn't trending on the intraday so we don't participate. Buyers step in at the MP and break the stride. Again, price is ranging on the intraday and the range is narrow. The extreme we're looking at is the ONH and ONL so we pass on this one too, though in hindsight it would have yielded some nice profits. This is what we wanted. Though price did follow through after the ONH breach, it's only been one leg so far and now sellers come in a the top and break the buyer stride. Buyers come in at the swing low but sellers force a lower swing high. We wait for price to print a lower low before entering short. Buyers step in just below the ONH. Normal so far and nothing to worry about. However at the lower swing high sellers don't show up to the party. We get suspicious and move our stop below this and lo and behold, traders take it and form another buying wave. Traders take it up to the lower swing low at 3, then again price drops with conviction. We're now below the ONH again, so we don't wait for a lower swing high and enter short on the lower low. Price here prints a swing low and lower swing high. On the static time chart it looks like one bar but in realtime the prints were there. We draw our supply line to track the trend. Buyers again show at the MP and sellers again are absent during the counter. When price drops again to the MP and buyers again show up we manually exit. Price isn't acting like we want it to so we don't want to be there.
Sep 25 US premarket. Not much change from the EU aside from moving the ONHL points and price forming a 5m trend. The defining characteristic here is that we're at the MP of the hourly range and price has formed a box in this area so this is an interesting area to watch during the US open as it could just rocket back up to R from here. Price opens and continues the rejection of the 15m range MP started during the EU session. Nothing much to do here. Sellers step in at the top of the premarket chop area. We get a higher low swing with no participation then a sellers again step it up. Normally we'd short here but given the general trendlessness of the bigger picture and that we just came from the range MP we sit this one out. Misread the higher low and higher high at the ONL. We initiate a long that quickly gets taken out before price forms the actual higher swing low and goes in the direction we hypothesized. No RET whatsoever so we can't hop aboard. Lower swing high at the hourly range MP. We're not comfortable with this one either, we'd prefer to play the intraday edges. Second rejection at the same area as 3. We get to hop aboard this one but it starts to stall at the 15m MP so we quickly exit. At this point we've breached the PDL and followed through.. BUT... it's a one-legged follow through and price breaks its stride with buyer participation. We wait for the RET and enter on the higher swing low. Scale out at the MFE and full exit at the break as price reverese again the 15m MP. We exit because we didn't see any buyers at that last swing low. Done here, getting tired and the price action just isn't actionable enough for us.
Sep 28 Premarket Hourly. Straight shot through R. What goes up most come down, at least a little bit. 15m. Same story. 5m. Two ranges visible here. S and the MPs may be interesting areas for upside continuation. ONH should be watched for an hourly top/bottom to form, as this is where it frequently occurs
Your dark background can make my eyes blind. Anyway, it is your choice. And anyway .... CL uptrend started on 26 Sep 2023 Tuesday, European session. By the mid-Asian session 28 Sep 2023 Thursday, it appears CL will not go up anymore. Over the next few hours, the movement will most likely be choppy / untrendy.
Ah, I forgot to upload that day. I'll do that after this. Sep 28 EU 1. Traders reject the last high formed premarket, putting us temporarily in a possible chop zone. A quick dip down into the box edge and rally up to the box MP. 2. Another rejection here. Traders seem to want to go down. 3. Price turns at the previous low but without any significant buying activity, there's no eagerness here. 4. Rally up to the opening high, and sellers again step up. This is a clear sign now that price will probaby retest the low at 3 and may even drop further than that. 5. Price drops all the way to ONL after a quick bounce at the premarket range MP. Here we see some buying, and the stride is broken. Downward move is over temporarily and an hourly bottom may form in this area so it bears watching. 6. Selling wave at the premarket range MP. Nothing very conclusive here, so we watch to see if buyers step in again at the ONL or at the bottom formed at 5. Price does get all the way down there and buyers step up once again. This is looking more and more like an hourly bottom is forming. Price rejects the range MP once again but that's not really concerning us at the moment. Then on the retest of the lows at 5, buyers disappear, vanish, exit stage left. The hourly bottom possibility evaporates and we start to think that a downward continuation is likely. 7. Price drops past the range lows and rallies up to the range MP. And sellers appear. Clear sign that prices will likely go lower from here.
As maxinger kindly pointed out, we were missing Sep26 Sep 26 US premarket Hourly. We've breached the chop zone and even without follow through the chances are high that a rebound here will reverse at the chop area MP because this hasn't proven itself to be a trading range yet. 15m. The picture here is pretty much the same except that if we reject here we almost definitely be in a range. 5m. We're watchindg the premarket range S or MP for the catalyst for a rally up to the 15m and hourly MPs. Price bounces off the MP premarket and opens at the top of the swing high. It then moves down before rebounding and making higher highs. Sellers reject the premarket MP, we enter short on what looks like a lower swing high, but prices ends up making higher highs. Stride is broken and we're still at the MP. We re-enter the short on a lower low. It barely makes it past the last swing low before rebounding. Price gets past the MP but starts to form a lower swing high. Again we re-enter at what seems to be the lower low but price ticks up and takes out our stop before moving down. Not taking our usual trades because the 15m is ranging, but it seems that within the larger range it still makes sense to follow the smaller 15m moves as they still yield good profits.
Looks like Crude one hour chart found support (50% percentage retracement of up move and WRB level from prior breakout point) - at least currently it is holding:- Next stop may be $90.70-90.60 if it doesn't.