As a political scientist, I've always been keen to trade political events and have made the experience that they offer pretty good opportunities for some day/swing trades. While it's commonly said that politics do not have lasting impacts on the market, the short term impact is certainly good enough for trades. Was not too hard to buy gold upon seeing riots in the Capitol, gold up 1% for a few hours was enough to make me some good money. Was not too hard to get Puts on European indices on "No-Deal Brexit" fears early December, and was just as fun to make 100+% on Cannabis and sports betting stocks after Biden election. Let's have a discussion on upcoming political events/trends and possible implications for stocks and markets. Obviously I could research answers to the questions below myself, but probably somebody else here will be able to contribute better questions/answers/ideas... let's give it a try. Two ideas to begin with: 1. BITCOIN (of course). Which stocks and markets will be impacted if BTC crashes (temporarily) due to stronger regulation by authorities or Tether FUD? Shorting Grayscale or MicroStrategy/BTC miners is an obvious one, but how will Gold be affected? Recently, rise in Bitcoin was strongly correlated to outflows from Gold. BTC down, GLD up? How about impact on indices? 2. Geopolitical/(Oil): Biden admin makes re-instatement of Iran-Nuclear-Deal likely, which would mean lifting of sanctions and much bigger Iranian oil output. Which sort of oil will be affected most strongly? Before termination of Iran deal and sanctions by Trump admin, Iran purchased industrial goods from western countries on a large scale, i.e. large orders for Aircrafts from Airbus (as Iranian fleet of aircraft is super old) as well as billions of replacement parts for oil fields from BASF Wintershall. Which contracts weren't fulfilled due to U.S. sanctions (and threat to all companies doing business with Iran) - and which goods will Iran mainly purchase on the international markets once it's again able to?
Well it's an idea though be aware in the politics section on the left you have Plato's ship of fools, but on the right... There are dips to buy ahead Captain.