Boy I have poor trading results from 9:30-10am EST. I think I am going to stay away from the market in those first 30 minutes. I could see if myself trading if I was spreading or putting on/adjusting an option position, but not for trading the ES futures outright. Anyone else here the same way?
yes, It seems like everybody else knows exactly which way the market is going, and your carefully laid plans based on the last weeks history are decimated in 30 minutes
big funds don't trade in the first thirty minutes, long or short. first thirty minutes are for the pikers to get fleeced.
I should have searched posts before I posted this - it seems like people make good money in this period, which is good. I just need to learn how to trade it. Definitely an area for improvement.
I would absolutely agree that big funds generally don't trade in this period, unless there is some reason why they need to get size on immediately.
I don't know much about "big funds" trading or not trading that time period but institutional traders, professional traders and retail traders do trade such time period but not every trading day in reference to your inquiry about the Emini ES futures.
Hi jonny, I have a question for you, why do you choose to trade right from the get go ? Especially if you don't know what's going to happen. This may not be the way to place the highest probabilities in your favour. Then there are those that only trade the first hour and finish for the day. So what do you think the difference is between these two players ? I hope you don't think I'm lecturing in anyway, please let me know if you think this is the case, more to my point getting the thought process to the next level for some.
Newcomers think a professional daytrader uses market as an ATM on a daily basis. There are days where you absolutely want to daytrade and exploit that free intraday leverage to the fullest, and there days where you dont want to touch the market with a 10 foot pole. Least of all, trade every freaking day's 30min opening manually.
DDR - great questions, thank you for asking them. Why do I chose to trade in the first 30 minutes? Because there is opportunity there - I can see it in the order flow and price action. What do I think the difference is between these two players (people who only trade the first hour and people who don't)? From watching order flow in that first hour, I get the sense that: there is more short-term, large paper volume coming into the market as compared to the second hour. What are they likely thinking? I'm not sure, but the order flow is just constant and aggressive once the market starts moving in a direction. It's almost like everyone is saying, "see the movement, hold your nose, jump in, and ride the wave." This pattern definitely seems more aggressive to the downside. Also, whoever is playing must be hitting bids / lifting offers as the price action is just too aggressive / quick. In. Out. There also tends to be a pause around 9:40-9:50 - sometimes this is a reversal, sometimes not. It is almost like paper is saying - time to exit, cut the winners and run. I can't say anything about people who don't trade the first hour. It is tough to see what isn't there. I am always trying to improve my personal trading (about breakeven in the ES now - slightly negative) and yesterday I was just reviewing my historical trade results by 30 minute ranges. I noticed that, comparatively, I tend to underperform against myself from 9:30-10am EST. Which raised the question - why is this? Just to give everyone some background, I don't trade anything mechanically - everything is discretionary and based off of market structure, that day's news, and order flow at key levels. DDR - thank you for your questions - definitely something to think about this weekend!
I think it is more personal choice, based on your personality. I am in all the time 24/5 in forex. That's just the way that suits my personality. So the open is j I trade over in forex now, and we don't really have an open. But back in the ES days, that first 30 min, 9:30 to 10:00 could just eat me alive. I don't know if it is still that way, but you are correct, it is a special time and requires special bets (even if they are just normal bets.)