Trading bitcoin via mstr in 2025

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 18, 2025.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** Not financial advise, all posts on this thread are for entertainment purposes only ****

    I think for the next 3 months, bitcoin will be exciting, imo, $150k/btc or even higher
    April or May, could be the start of a summer slowdown

    Anyway, mstr is going to announce earnings next month (Feb/2025 per nasdaq site) and this will incorporate the new FASB bitcoin changes plus all future mstr earnings reports

    I made good profits on mstr call options last year, still have an active call options position from last year,

    actually 2 mstr options from last year, one just expired worthless yesterday -$75k, the other still in good profits, will provide update when it hits $1M profits or I sell it to close after July 1, 2025

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    Getting back to the thread topic, if bitcoin hits $150k in the next 3 months, mstr would easily be over $800/share
    • I bought to open mstr call options position June 2025 expiration, ~$50k risk capital
    • Purchased msty (stock) position, ~$250k risk capital less dividend distribution ~$20k yesterday and every month held going forward

    New year trading is a fresh start, good luck to all

    upload_2025-1-18_15-50-2.png



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    upload_2025-1-18_15-55-48.png




    Relevant thread

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...etric-risk-reward.379915/page-37#post-6065103
     
    TrailerParkTed, NoahA, Tokenz and 2 others like this.

  2. Just poaching my 150k call in 3 months? That's only if this doesn't do a double correction.
     
  3. kroxobor

    kroxobor

    That's quite a bold prediction! Do you have any thoughts on what might trigger such a significant price movement?
     
    johnarb likes this.
  4. He has no idea. He is just repeating what I said. You don't need anything to trigger such a move. Such a move is just the cycle that usually follows a halvening. If you want to compare to previous post halvening rallies, by the numbers this should reach 200-250k...150k would be the low end.
     
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    Yes, it's on the OP... $150k is not much of a move for bitcoin from currently $100k level

    upload_2025-1-18_20-34-15.png

    You do not make money larping.

    Put some money on a trade if you have conviction... or continue to be a larper posting bullshit charts on ET and 100 targets
     
    Sprout, taowave, Tokenz and 1 other person like this.
  6. why do people buy mstr when mstr nav premium is almost 2? it is like you pay 2 dollar for 1 dollar worth of bitcoin.
     
  7. You could ask why do people buy bluechips with P/E over 20.

    Now you have your answer.
     
    johnarb likes this.
  8. BMK

    BMK

    Halvening? That's not even a word.

    You talkin bout the 2008 film by M. Night Shyamalan?

    Or the leak of celebrity nude photos in 2014?

    Or something else?
     
  9. Tokenz

    Tokenz

    There's a high probability that Trump will start on the strategic reserve this year making the bullrun go well into 2026.
     
    johnarb and jbusse like this.
  10. Just like it boomed when EL Salvador actually turned their entire currency into Bitcoin?
     
    #10     Jan 18, 2025