Traders Increasingly Focused On US Election As Trump Odds Soar

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ipatent, Oct 14, 2024.

  1. ipatent

    ipatent

    Traders Increasingly Focused On US Election As Trump Odds Soar

    While rates strategists are dignified, nuanced creatures, stock traders, on the other hand, are simpler brutes, and here things are somewhat easier. Indeed, one can see a dramatic reversal with Goldman's Republican Victory basket - a proxy for Trump's odds - surging in recent days to new all time highs, while the Democrat Victory basket - a proxy for president Kamala - sinking.

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    Indeed, with just weeks to go until the election showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, odds are increasingly shifting in Trump's favor: "A Trump victory would likely be positive for risk sentiment, though more for US assets at the expense of Europe and rest of the world,” Kumar said. β€œIn our view, the environment remains broadly positive for risky assets.”

    And while public polls remain irrevocably politicized, with massive Democrat oversampling still skewing results grotesquely to the point where most polls are meaningless - although even here we are seeing a massive surge in support for the former president with the latest poll by MSM flagbearer NBC showing Kamala's 5 point lead evaporate...
     
  2. notagain

    notagain

    Kamala will allow electoral chaos to sour Trumps victory.
    Eventually the public will realize no one in gov't is loyal to the constitution, only loyal to their agency.
     
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    what an odd thing to bring up.
     
  4. ipatent

    ipatent

    RCP odds are now Trump 55%, Harris 43.9%.
     
  5. ipatent

    ipatent

    Notice how all the liberals on the board are avoiding discussing the election betting odds lately.
     
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    There aren't very many actual liberals on here. There are a good number of moderates and conservatives who don't support MAGA and their fascism. We aren't voting for Kamala because she is in any way exceptional (she's barely average IMO) and there are numerous proposed policies of hers that we won't support. However she will get our vote because Trump is so bad and he does not support the foundations of democracy. My father, a conservative, fought the Nazis in WW2; there is no way I will support the same fascist ideals being instituted in my country by the MAGA crowd.
     
    wrbtrader likes this.
  7. ipatent

    ipatent

    You're imagining it, probably because Trump is a German-American.
     
  8. ids

    ids

    No gwb, you are far left. Others are even further left. There is nothing centric in your position. Zero.
     
  9. ids

    ids

    No gwb, you are far left. Many others here are even further left. There is nothing centric in your position. Zero, absolute zero it is. Poor thing even do not realize it.
     
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Good luck with your assertions.
     
    wrbtrader likes this.