A little background. Been throwing darts for 3 years. Really had 0 clue what I was doing. Mostly stocks and options, and a little ES. Have been working on ES for 9 months or so with an actual drive to learn. Day one- super choppy today, so sized down to single lots. Not bad to me for a loser day, although I could've just given up after the first two probes. There really was only one good trade I saw today, and I didn't take it. Expecting more of the same tomorrow really.
Avoid the chop. Take a simple approach like an opening range of the Globex (6PM-7PM Eastern range). If it hasn't broken above or below that range, and stayed above or below (no swaying back and forth), I don't trade that day. I learned that rule from FX traders. Another criteria could be staying above or below prior day's high or low.
Yeah, no excuses from yesterday. It had the feel of a chop fest early. I'm not a scalper, and my profit targets are too high to trade a lot in a range bound day/chop. However, I will still have those probe trades early in the day, because I won't likely know how the entire day will play out. Maybe I can make a rule for two probes in a day. Then no more trades unless we break the range.
Day two, likely done. Plus 3 points/singe lot. 3 order, 1 fill order one missed by 1.5 points. order 2 by 1 point. This tells me the zones were good. Order 3 fill, total heat was 1/2 point. Target was 10. ES would not budge at the lows, so adjusted the stop for plus 3, to give a little room to work. Considered flipping long down there, but had no entry at my stop level that fit my max 2 point stop. Still Single lots until I see a better level to probe. Single lots cut down on my max points quite a bit, because I can't trim and hold the runner.
There is the update for day 2 finish. Ended up not taking another trade after all. Saw one thing again I liked this afternoon, although it was more due to the action in the NQ's, and I couldn't find an entry on ES for it with tight enough stops. Haven't made a trade over a one lot yet in my first two days. Nothing has stood out trade wise so far to make me go to 2 or 3. So far, 1 winner out of 5 trades. Down $81.
2 Orders this morning 1 fill. Order one was my first two lot order, missed fill by 1 tick. Just as yesterday, to me that just says my zone was on. Order two was a one lot, as the level wasn't quite as good. Total heat was 3 ticks. See how this one develops for today. Target is 10, but do have R just 6 points away. May have to make an adjustment if it can't bust through. Same as yesterday when we couldn't break down through support. IWM leading at the moment, which is quite the change. That will be my tell sign today unless something else catches up. IBB, OIL, NQ, whichever.
Seeing weakness in NAZ, here. Moved ES stops up, Coming in to a zone where NQ's may find some support. IBB coming off lows, but no pulling naz with it at the moment. AAPl LOD'ing. All signs giving me caution. Yet, vix getting Mike Tyson'd in the face, oil and IWM rip city. Conflicting.
Profit target hit for plus 10. Right in to that China spike high here. Still haven't seen any sellers show yet. In a situation where if I had the runner, I'd let this breathe a little more. When sellers don't show at R on these strong moves, a lot of times we seem to get those grind up days. Yet, with the fed today it's better to play safe with my single lot.
Made a couple trades in the nq's earlier in the day and a couple later in my personal account. Single lot trades in these as well. I'm not trading nq in the combine, as I tend to swing it a lot more than even my ES runners, which is not allowed. When I made the afternoon trade, didn't really have that ES spot screaming at me to take the long there. Sure would've looked good in the combine number. However looking back, I would have been stopped for -2 at the spot I would've tested. NQ had two losers and 2 winners. both winners had limited heat on entries. loser 1 -5.... max two ES, I use 5 for nq stops. loser 2 -2.... winner 1- plus 20 winner 2- still open as swing plus 61
There is the update for the day. 1 trade, 1 lot, plus 10 points or $496 after commission. Very happy with the day, traded the plan and executed. 2 winners and 4 losers so far in the combine. Plus $400. , Need to go back and study the ES afternoon charts, as the action on NQ for whatever reason seemed more clear.