https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/08/gol...e-world-is-moving-into-a-new-super-cycle.html Top Goldman Sachs analyst says the world is moving into a new super cycle PUBLISHED MON, JAN 8 20248:15 AM ESTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO Sophie Kiderlin@IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/@SKIDERLIN SHARE KEY POINTS The world economy is moving into a “different” super cycle, Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs, told “Squawk Box Europe.” Artificial intelligence and decarbonization are two of the key factors that could have a positive impact during this new cycle, he said. Oppenheimer also pointed out that there are historical parallels to current developments that could hold lessons for the future. A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the closing bell on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 13, 2023. Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters The global economy is moving into a new “super cycle,” with artificial intelligence and decarbonization being driving factors, according to Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs. “We are moving clearly into a different super cycle,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday. Super cycles are commonly defined as lengthy periods of economic expansion, often accompanied by growing GDP, strong demand for goods leading to higher prices and high levels of employment. The most recent significant super cycle that the world economy experienced began in the early 1980s, Oppenheimer said, discussing content from his newly launched book “Any Happy Returns.” This was characterized by interest rates and inflation peaking, before a decadeslong period of falling capital costs, inflation and rates, as well as economic policies such as deregulation and privatization, he explained. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks eased and globalization grew stronger, Oppenheimer noted. But not all of these factors are now set to continue as they were, he added. “We’re not likely to see interest rates trending down as aggressively over the next decade or so, we’re seeing some pushback to globalization and, of course, we’re seeing increased geopolitical tensions as well.” The Russia-Ukraine war, tensions between the U.S. and China largely relating to trade, and the Israel-Hamas conflict which is raising concerns on the wider Middle East are just some geopolitical themes that markets have been fretting over in recent months and years. WATCH NOW VIDEO03:09 We are clearly moving into a different super cycle, Goldman Sachs analyst says While current economic developments should theoretically lead to the pace of financial returns slowing, there are also forces that could have a positive impact — namely artificial intelligence and decarbonization, Oppenheimer said. AI is still in its early stages, he said, however as it is used increasingly as the basis for new products and services, it could lead to a “positive effect” for stocks, he said. The hot topic of AI and productivity, which has often gone hand in hand with debates and concerns around human jobs being replaced or changed, will likely impact the economy. “The second thing is [that] we haven’t yet seen, and I think we’re relatively positive that we will see, [is] an improvement in productivity on the back of the applications of AI which could be positive for growth and of course for margins,” Oppenheimer said. Despite AI and decarbonization both being relatively new concepts, there are historical parallels, Oppenheimer said. One of the historical periods that stands out is the early 1970s and early 1980s, which he said were “not so dissimilar” to current developments. Elevated inflation and interest rates were perhaps more structural issues than compared with now, he said, however factors including growing geopolitical tensions, rising taxes and enhanced regulation appear similar. In other ways, current shifts can be seen as reflective of changes even further back in history, Oppenheimer explained. “Because of this tremendous twin shock that we’re likely to see, positive shock of technological innovation at a very rapid pace together with restructuring of economies to move towards decarbonization, I think that’s a period that’s more akin really to what we saw in the late 19th century,” he said. Modernization and industrialization fueled by infrastructure and technological developments alongside significant increases of productivity mark this historical period. Crucially, these historical parallels can provide lessons for the future, Oppenheimer pointed out. “Looking back in time, cycles and structural breaks do repeat themselves but never in exactly the same way. And I think we need to sort of learn from history what are the inferences that we can look at in order to position best for the sort of environment we’re moving into.” ------------------------------------- Indeed I am expecting the SP500 at 7000 in 2025.
%% LOOKS mostly right; except the decarbon part which most pretend that is going to impact ''climate change''LOL They may use more co2 injecting in oil wells but that's not really /decarbonization. Looks like his note is much more accurate than the other posted GS note on ''selling tech ''LOL; but let's see where the week closes for tech trends/so far so good /......
Yeah, right. Haven't I heard that before. IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME, DAMMIT!!! (Gordon Gekko and his cronies prior to 1987 Black Monday) IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME, DAMMIT!!! (Henry Blodget and his permabulls prior to 2000 Dot.com Crash) IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME, DAMMIT!!! (Jim Cramer and his cheerleaders prior to 2008 Subprime Crash) IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME, DAMMIT!!! (FOMC and their lagging indicators prior to 2022 Covid Crash)
%% AI /does seem to be game changer/tech trends anyway; but if JAN closes down\maybe a bad sign\or bear sign for 2024year. Even though 1st five days in JAN has some what of a forecasting help/ about 83%; i prefer the whole month about 89%/ up JAN/SPY = up year[2014 Stock Traders Almanac +SPY years since then........................................................................................
Nuthin' like talk "Bull" to the sheeple when you have a book to sell. Come one, come all see the greatest show on earth ... and pickup an autographed eww wee copy on the way out.
Goldman needs to create headlines like this to keep the illusion of prosperity and a never ending booming economic cycle all while the consumer is in $1 trillion plus worth of credit card debt and the US as a whole $34 Trilliom in in national debt. Yep talk about a new super cycle, all those trillions in debt... ....I'll tell ya, these wallstreet banks are hilarious!!
%% Rich Dennis told Jack Schwager ''do your own research.'' Good repeat pattern. Looks like plenty of opportunity ahead for even whiners ; AI[machine learning] has enabled more fraud for voice mail, maybe more email fakes ........ Good thing about capital markets , one monkey don't stop no show. LOL And a bunch of debt monkeys or cash monkeys don't stop no show ,throwing darts @ WSJ targets .