if you look at all the banks that reported today as well as the news,they all mention how bad their earnings were due to the problems in the credit markets. abnk america and a number of other banks badly missed earnings today and that will weigh on the market. also,a few non financial companies reported and were very cautious on the economy and mentioned the credit crunch. a major railroad company just said the economy is worsening;this was said this morning as well. also-the dollar just dropped to a new ALL TIME LOW against the euro today. Cisco offices in Brazil were raided by the police and people were arrested. EBAY was downgraded so tech will have trouble today. i think today might be a double digit down day simply due to the markets actually paying attention to what is happening today; at least today. the 2 bright spots were exceptional earnings and guidence by TXT and PH.
Cisco offices are raided in Brazil - NY Times (32.46 ) : Brazilian police and Federal Revenue Service officials raided offices of the Brazilian unit of the network equipment company CSCO and arrested top executives as part of a continuing investigation into a smuggling and tax fraud scheme, authorities said late Tuesday. Police accused a group of local businessmen, including employees of Cisco do Brasil, of setting up a scheme to evade import duties and local sales and corporate taxes on behalf of CSCO. The police originally did not name the company involved. However, the federal judge who signed the warrants for the raid, Alexandre Cassetari, confirmed Cisco was the company under investigation.
do you know how many days are left before FOMC, with FED funds predictiong 75/25 of a cut.......... what does that mean to large capital pool risk if they take a short position?.... another capital pool will raid their position.
the bank events all happened -in the past-. And FOMC cuts are to prevent further worsening. The market is pricing in forward. Nobody expected the FOMC cutting to mean next Qs earnings would be affected.
these are just liquidity raids, ...engineered by crooks on the street. Learn the game and profit from it, refuse to learn and get taken out back and shot.
As a long and intermediate term investor i am aware that as a trader i am trading mostly, almost entirely, noise. Albeit noise that has some underlying structure -- if it didn't none of us traders could make any money in the long run. The non-noise component of the daily markets is usually miniscule. The exceptions are those 300+ pt down days or those 200+ pt up days, they contain a measurable amount of something other than noise. Those of us who only trade intraday may not realize, because we have no need to, that there is an underlying economy to which the markets must ultimately respond -- at least they always have and i don't think that "this time it is different." The ones with investment experience have been saying, for at least two years, that the mortgage bond problem would cause a calamity that would have to be reflected in the markets. And some of us, quite a few in fact, have been saying that, considering that we came out of a huge liquidity bubble, we expect to have created the worst real-estate-mortgage-bond-building-industry swoon in our lifetimes, and that we don't think a brief 8-10% market correction is sufficient. We are expecting 15-20% net and a recession. We don't say when though if we have any sense at all. Now the question for today is: "Is it an Earthquake or only a shock, is it the good turtle soup or only the mock. Is it a cocktail, this feeling of whoa, or should it be -- look out below?" (To be sung to the tune of "At Long Last Love." My apologies to Mr. Cole Porter) I think it is only a shock. After all tomorrow is expiration Friday. I don't think we get the real McCoy until 2008 or Spring 2009. But every time there is a dip we want to roll out the fire trucks and foam down the runway, just in case. See also Stoney's comment here www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=106214
of a note of fascination, take a look at the TICs reports. Something like 40B of US stock worldwide was net sold in August 07 (probably a lot repurchased after the mid Aug dip though). 25B of that came from funds registered in the carribean!!! (err hedge funds) And better yet, those same hedge funds entirely offset Chinese and Japanese net selling of bonds with their 'flight to quality' trade. Too many hedge funds.
Well we only have to lose 10 point to be down double digits. So thats an easy accomplishment. As far as market crashes in one days go. It will not happen. WHy you ask? Because the markets automatically shut down at certain thresholds in price. Can we have a bad day of course, a crash is not allowed because they shut it down. The again it all depends on what one considers a crash?
LOL none of that is a big deal. Obviously the banks are stil reporting some suprime issues and no one cares about ebay. Cheaper dollar is actually good, and the credit crunch is over. Cisco offices in brazil arested? huh/