I'm looking for the long term rate vs short term rate spread to continue to widen, and would like to use etfs to profit from this. I've used TLT and TBT for long term rates, but am uncertain which short term etf to use for a spread, and how to structure it to be interest rate neutral. Anyone have advice on this?
you can look into defined maturity etfs. invesco bulletshares or ishares. Or go to futures with sofr and treasury products
etf is not the best instrument to trade spread, that is interest rates future market. there is no point hedging tlt, go long because the rate cutting cycle just started.
Tks all for suggestions....I think I'll go with futures, long 3 month SOFR, short ZB. Now - How to calculate equivalent contracts to profit on a widening spread, whether rates fall (IMHO more likely in the immediate future) or rise. ZB seems a lot more volatile than SOFR
they are exchange traded spreads https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/intercommodity-spread.html
The exchange traded spreads would be perfect, but they don't include a short term vs long term spread. The fed can lower short term rates, but a ballooning deficit (and debt) will keep long term rates higher, even if they continue to skew the issuing to the short end.