I just sold 33% of my gold due the following reasons: -Gold investors are happily bragging and sharing big price targets (contrarian indicator) -The economist magazine (usually a good contrarian indicator), just wrote 3 articles about gold in their latest issue. They dont normally write that many pieces about it, which to me stands out a lot -The Fed might reverse a lot of the dove talk once the election is over and their candidate (Harris) loses -Its up a lot on the year and rates are rising Long-term, its probably still fine as China, Russia and other countries have to buy it, but tactically, it feels like a good time to rebalance and take some off the table
I have a "core position" in Gold and I am hanging in there. I also bought a small position in a 3x gold ETF in the past two weeks (6,000 dollar exposure). My theory comes from listening to the podcast "Macro Voices" and the various guest's opinions on gold. From what I understand many central banks are accumulating gold. I also believe geo-political tensions are on the rise.
You should apply this same idea to stocks. Why is it that gold can always be overbought but never stocks or bitcoin.... If fairytale bitcoin is nearly 70,000 why can't gold be 7000?? With gold on its continuous move higher seems like something is very wrong internally amd behind the scenes somewhere hidden away.. It's just amusing that gold is usually a hedge against inflation yet the fed says inflation is contained and dropping all while gold is going in a completely different direction. Something here seems very very very odd!!!
simple, stocks are exponential return assets, bitcoin, even more so. The cost of being wrong and out of stocks/bitcoin is exponential missed profits, in gold, its often a lot less, quite limited amounts, specially when its up 30 something percent on the year. gold will go exponential pretty much only in a mania, stocks (over the years) can compound to exponential amounts, bitcoin, it can do that in 6 months.