I started to scale in a portion of my cash reserves (that were getting 5% at IB) into 10y Treasury notes. My thinking is that: -A recession in the next 2 years is like a 30-40% chance -Rick Santelli was on CNBC talking about how rates might go to 13%, which gives me contrarian indicator vibes -If the new normal of inflation is 3%, 4.65% is a pretty good yield to get on savings. And I get to lock that in for 10 years -Headlines about how high rates were are all over the place, even Cramer is live tweeting the "capital destruction in bonds" -5% is nice, but guaranteed 4.65% for 10 years is better -The Fed is probably done hiking I put a 1/3 position and plan to scale in if bond prices continue to fall, this is not a "macro bet" as much as is a "savings" bet, I want to protect myself from future cuts and/or ZIRP I would love to hear the opinion of other macro/economic thinkers out there
Banks don't offer a "locked-in" rate for that long unless they think that rates are going higher. They want to lock in a "low-cost source of funds" which they can lend to others at a higher rate. Lots are claiming, "THIS is the top in rates". They don't know, they're just guessing. Odds are that if you're patient you might get a higher rate sometime later.
It was quite clear, because Scat A. Cannot read and thus understand "10y treasuries" and B. Do the math that 2023+10y=2033.
Bill Ackman is on the opposing side of that trade. You decide whether that is positive or negative for your thesis.
%% Yes; some money market/ not as much as SEPT/; OCT tends to be much better for stock/ETF traders. Sold [edit]some hi grade copper into uptrend..............................................................................
1 month treasuries are paying 5.5% why people are accepting less elsewhere boggles my mind. If you really think interest rates are going to go down, then you want money free to buy stocks anyways.