The Trump polling bump is officially over

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Tony Stark, Apr 18, 2020.

  1. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/donald-trump-polls-coronavirus/index.html

    The Trump polling bump is officially over

    Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
    Updated 10:04 AM ET, Fri April 17, 202



    (CNN)As the coronavirus pandemic began to shut down American society in late March, President Donald Trump suddenly got more popular.

    His job approval numbers, long stuck in the low 40s, jumped into the high 40s. His disapproval numbers dropped. Suddenly it looked like the onset of the coronavirus -- and his administration's handling of it -- might reset Trump's long-stagnant standing with the American people.

    Yeah, not so much.

    The latest data from Gallup and a slew of other national polls conducted this month suggest that while Trump clearly benefited from a sort of rally-'round-our-President effect in the early days of the pandemic's grips on the country, that bump has now disappeared.

    Gallup's latest poll, released on Thursday, shows Trump's approval rating at 43% -- down 6 percentage points from where he was in late March in the same poll. As Gallup's Justin McCarthy writes: "The six-point decline in the President's approval rating is the sharpest drop Gallup has recorded for the Trump presidency so far, largely because Trump's ratings have been highly stable."

    Why did Trump's numbers drop? Because Democrats and independents, who briefly warmed up to him amid the onset of the pandemic, went back to feeling as they always have about him -- not great. Trump is back in single-digit approval territory with Democrats (at 7%) -- a drop of 6 points since the last Gallup poll. And less than 4 in 10 (39%) of independents now approve of the job he is doing, down from 43% last month.

    And it's not just Gallup. According to Real Clear Politics poll data, the last 11 national polls have all shown Trump's disapproval rating outstripping his approval number; his average approval rating in those polls is 46% while his disapproval is 51%. The most recent CNN poll -- released on April 8 -- showed Trump at 44% approval and 51% disapproval.

    The reason for the drop -- just as the reason for his temporary rise -- seems nearly certain to be perceptions of his handling of the coronavirus crisis. In a new Pew national poll, two-thirds of respondents said they though he had reacted "too slow" to the coronavirus pandemic. That same poll showed a majority of Americans (52%) saying that Tump was making the situation seem better than it actually was.

    Always keenly aware of his poll numbers, Trump has grown desperate for good news among this recent slump. On Thursday, he tweeted this: ".@OANN Poll "Gives President Trump a 52% Approval Rating in North Carolina, and a seven point lead over (Sleepy) Joe Biden."

    OANN is the One America News Network, a pro-Trump "news" organization that has positioned itself to the right of Fox News in the media firmament. A quick search of a little thing I call the internet shows that OANN in fact does not do any sort of polling. In fact, if you search for "OANN poll" the link Google spits out brings you to an OANN page that says simply: "Polls. It seems we can't find what you're looking for. Perhaps searching can help." Riiiiiiight.

    What poll was Trump talking about then? It appears to be this one -- conducted by Civitas, which bills itself as "North Carolina's most broadly supported conservative policy organization." So, pretty thin gruel there for Trump.

    What the latest national poll numbers make clear is that a) any Trump bump from the early days of coronavirus is over and b) the pandemic, politically speaking, is not going to be the thing that saves Trump in November.

    The longer the fight against coronavirus has worn on, the more Trump's numbers have returned to where they have always been. The only question is whether, as the fight continues on, his handling (or lack thereof) of the coronavirus crisis will actually drag his approval ratings below where they have been for the past few years.
     
  2. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    https://cbsaustin.com/news/nation-w...response-falls-country-grows-more-pessimistic

    Poll: Trump's approval rating for COVID-19 response falls, country grows more pessimistic

    AUSTIN, Texas — President Trump's approval rating for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak has fallen to 44%, according to a new poll.

    The ABC News/Ipsos poll found that for the third straight week, the president's approval for his handling of the pandemic hovers around the mid-40s, putting him underwater for four of the five weeks that the poll was conducted.

    54% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the outbreak.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, approval along party lines is starkly different. Just 7% of Democrats approve of the president's handling of the pandemic, compared to 86% of Republicans.



    Maybe more distressingly, Americans are growing more pessimistic about a return to normalcy when the COVID-19 pandemic subsides:

    Among those Americans who say their daily routine has changed due to the coronavirus, 31% believe a return to normalcy will come by June 1, compared to 44% who said the same at the beginning of this month. The June 1 date sharply divides partisans with 51% of Republicans and only 17% of Democrats thinking they will resume normal activities by then.In the earlier poll, conducted April 1-2, more than half of Americans (59%) believed that they would return to their regular daily routine by July 1, but now, for a majority of Americans it's even later, reflecting the increasing skepticism within the country about returning to some semblance of normal life after a near-universal shutdown of society.Three in four Americans think they will be able to resume their regular routine by the end of the summer, which is down from 84% who said the same in an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on April 3.
     
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Even with a crisis and rally around the flag effect Trump never hit 50% in Gallup or aggregate polling.Many Governors and world leaders approval ratings have been in the 60s and 70s recently.
     
  4. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Most World Leaders See Approval Ratings Surge Amid Coronavirus. Not Trump.

    www.forbes.com
    Apr 18, 2020, 10:47am EDT
    Sergei Klebnikov Forbes Staff


    Updated Apr 18, 2020, 10:49am EDT
    TOPLINE
    Approval ratings of democratic leaders around the world have soared since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but some heads of state—particularly Trump, Brazil’s Bolsanaro and Japan’s Abe—have seen far smaller boosts, or even declines, amid criticism of how they’ve handled the crisis.



    KEY FACTS
    Trump—amid mounting criticisms of his administration’s handling of the crisis—has approval ratings that compare poorly to that of other world leaders, and to those of other U.S. presidents during times of crisis.

    While Trump initially saw an increase in popularity when the United States first went into lockdown in mid-March, the latest Gallup poll shows his approval rating fell from 49% to 43%—the sharpest drop recorded for his presidency so far.

    Some world leaders have seen spectacular rises in support, especially Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel, whose approval rating increased 11 points to 79% since early March, according to a recent poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.

    And despite his country recording one of the highest numbers of coronavirus deaths, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte similarly saw his popularity soar, jumping to 71%—the highest level since he’s taken office in 2018.

    Likewise in France, several recent polls show frequently embattled President Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings skyrocketing 14 points since February, now between 46% and 51%, the most support he’s seen since June 2018.

    Even U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson—criticized for a slow response to the pandemic before his own extended hospitalization to battle the virus—saw an increase, with a recent poll finding satisfaction with his performance rising to 52% in March, up more than five percentage points since February.

    In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau charted a 74% approval rating and his Liberal party saw an increase in support, with 37% satisfaction overall, a 5% boost since last month.

    But Brazilian President Jair Bolsanaro—possibly the world leader most criticized for his handling of the crisis—has an approval rating of between 28% to 33%, according to two recent polls, which also show that approximately 40% of citizens disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus crisis.

    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan—also criticized early for what was seen as a “mild approach” to the outbreak—saw his approval ratings fall five percentage points, dropping to 40%, as his disapproval rating surpassed that number, according to the latest poll from Kyodo News.

    Crucial statistics
    The coronavirus pandemic has boosted the approval ratings for almost every leader of the world’s ten biggest democracies, according to recent analysis from pollster Morning Consult. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has the highest popularity among them: As of April 14, his net approval rating is 68, up from 62 at the beginning of the year. Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has the second-highest net approval over that period (36), though it fell slightly from 39 in January. During that same stretch of time, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has seen the largest surge in domestic popularity, with his net approval now up to 26 (from negative 26 on January 1). Morning Consult’s data shows that among all ten countries surveyed, Japan’s Abe has the lowest rating (at negative 33) and worst decline in net approval, having fallen from negative 18 at the start of 2020.

    Key background
    While Americans tend to support their president in the initial onset of a crisis—due to a “rally around the flag effect”—that hasn’t necessarily happened in the case of Trump. The highest approval for any U.S. president came after the September 11 terrorist attacks, when George W. Bush’s ratings skyrocketed to 89.8%. Similarly, when the Iranian hostage crisis began in 1979, Jimmy Carter’s approval ratings jumped from 32% to 56%.

    According to Morning Consult’s daily survey, President Trump’s net approval rose only slightly since the coronavirus began, from negative 10 at the start of January to negative 3 by mid-April. His current approval rating of 43% (per Gallup), only slightly higher than earlier this year, therefore pales in comparison to that of his predecessors while in time of crisis.
     
  5. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader



    This guy will beat Trump in november?
     
    smallfil likes this.
  6. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Yes he will.

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  7. smallfil

    smallfil

    That is the least of the problems of the Democrats. A bigger problem for the Democrat governors is their collusion to keep their economies shutdown. They will destroy the economies of their states including, hurting their extreme liberal constituents who voted them in. Wait till they lose their jobs and no new jobs awaiting them, taxes raised on them on top of that? In constrast, other states will have opened their economies and have regained their footing, some people will keep their jobs. Others will find jobs in new openings on new industries created. Take note that the hardest hit states are the extreme liberal states of New York, New Jersey, Michigan. All have had the highest death rates in the thousands, New York has how many dead now? So far, 17,671 deaths in New York, 4,070 deaths in New Jersey, 2,308 deaths in Michigan then, add the total destruction of their economies? What are the chances the Democrats get wiped out and thrown out of power up and down the line in those states? This will help re-elect President Donald Trump another 4 years. Thank you Democrats for supporting President Trump's re-election campaign.
     
  8. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Wishful thinking at its finest.Trump will take all the blame for covid.Thats whys Trumps approval rating is 43% and Democrat Governors are in the 60s and 70s.