Below is a letter I sent to the Finance Minister of Singapore. I put forward my concerns about the Asian economy and solutions to the problems that may arise as a result of China's tightened credit conditions. The source is from my blog morganist economics. To: Ministry of Finance 100 High Street #06-03 The Treasury Singapore 179434 To: The Finance Minister of Singapore Mr Heng Swee Keat. Regarding: Economic Growth - Reducing Government Debt. Friday, 25th October 2019. I have my concerns about the Asian economy as a result of China's far worsening tightened credit conditions and the limitations of the Indian banking system, which is seeing a rise in the number of defaults. Both of these economic difficulties could become problematic for the economy of Singapore. A banking crisis in particular could spread and impact the whole of the Asian economy. Making sure there is sufficient economic growth in the economy protects against debt defaults and the spread of bad debt from nation to nation, growth is imperative. I am an independent macroeconomist located in the United Kingdom who develops new tools and policies to enable economic growth. I have noticed Singapore's government debt has increased by nine percent in the last three years. I believe the percentage of government debt to Gross Domestic Product can be reduced through economic growth. I have enclosed a copy of a book I have written entitled, 'Economic Growth in A Highly Constrained Environment', providing original methods of generating economic growth, to reduce national debt to GDP. I have also enclosed a copy of another finance book I have written entitled, 'Modern Applied Macroeconomics', which uses pension policy as a macroeconomic control tool and economic stimulus. The book was originally a paper written in 2006, which has been so heavily applied in the United Kingdom that it has completely reformed economic policy. Pension policy is now a macroeconomic control tool and has been reformed in a way that it generates massive treasury cost efficiencies, through altering how pension tax relief is paid to retirement savers. I believe the new economic techniques I have developed can be used in Singapore to protect against the difficulties seen in the wider Asian economy. This in turn will help to stabilise the global economy and prevent the spread of a further banking crisis. It may be worth increasing the level and availability of central bank reserves to protect against the threat of bank runs, which often occur at the same time as debt defaults. The majority of loans calculate interest as a percentage of the principal investment, so perpetual growth is required in an economy. Kind Regards. Peter James Rhys Morgan.
Hey Morganist, maybe by any chance you have read this one ? : https://www.google.com/search?q=peo...AUIESgB&biw=1696&bih=798#imgrc=elcIZBkbVKg-gM: if you did so, what are your thoughts on it ? (sometimes, not the best books, makes through as well)
I read the reviews/blurb. There is one thing I don't like about it. It is the comment about elites. I don't like this idea of things being as a result of a group of people. I prefer the idea of people generating their own wealth and being able to do so. The whole Say's Law and Quantity Theory of Money view that if you produce something it generates it own demand and has a value in itself even if there is no demand. People can generate their own wealth and should do. This whole holding other people responsible attitude is not something I appreciate. Just lower taxes and enable freedom to trade this is the solution to many problems. Unless the elites are prohibiting this I don't want to blame them. If you like my position. I would recommend looking at Neo Classicalism and the Quantity Theory of Money. I have my own school of economic thought Morganist Economics. You might like it.
Peter, your piece shocked me. I always thought of Singapore as a model of prudence, but it ranks 10th in debt to GDP ratio. What is the money being spent on if I may ask, and presumably you know?
I read something before about this apparently excessive gross debt. Here it is: https://www.gov.sg/factually/conten...r-singapore-to-have-such-a-high-level-of-debt https://commodity.com/debt-clock/singapore/ Sg is triple AAA
They have a different economic model. They use borrowing to expand the publicly owned assets which have a value and thus offset the debt. In short the increase in debt enables them to have a higher asset holding this allows them to have a AAA credit rating. The problem with the debt rising is that it means they are having to artificially stimulate the economy through government borrowing, even if it means the assets of the government increase and offset the borrowing the fact is the free market is not providing sufficient rates of demand or consumption. This indicates the economy of Singapore has been impacted by the Chinese tightened credit conditions and by the decline in the Indian banking system. If you want know more about the government debt and AAA rating look at GIC and CPF see below. https://www.gic.com.sg/ https://www.cpf.gov.sg/Members
I have been communicating with the Asian economies to support them through the problems they have been experiencing. My hope is that I can help to prevent a deep credit crunch before it becomes global.
Bottom line : MSCI Singapore Free Index Futures getting more and more stable. see following monthly chart. The volatile period was from 2003 to 2009.