this recovery isn't sitting well on the stomach here, after yesterday's sharp rally and europes rally, we are stuck without follow through, not good. Agreement on the stimulus plan is out and still no follow through. I bailed on all my calls/longs/futs. scaled in some puts and short futures here. Anyone else concerned about the lack of follow through?
msft earnings after the close...last report was explosive to upside....they have to do another great report or market tankage...
I don't know, Papa, you might be jumping the gun a bit. A lot depends on your trading time frame, of course. After a 70 point rally off the S&P's low yesterday I don't think it's surprising for the market to catch its breath here. I've still got a small long position that I'll probably hold 'til the Fed meeting. It'll be interesting to see if the indexes get run up towards the close. That might not happen if people hold off ahead of MSFT earnings.
I hope it does run, the only thing i'll bail on is my ES short. I am scaling in on puts, so I hope it indeed continues to run higher. I am really concerned at the massive amount of stimulus that has just been thrown to the market. If it cannot rally REAL soon on all this news, this thing will get ugly, hence the scaling in now.
I think you're giving the stimulus package more credit than it deserves. The market knows it's pretty much a bunch of bullshit and that Fed policy and the AMBAC/MBIA bailout plan are the really important issues right at the moment. Our fearless leader is doing a press conference on the package right now so maybe that'll boost things a bit.
It would seem they are bailing on the bond bailout. http://www.ins.state.ny.us/press/2008/p0801241.htm STATEMENT BY NEW YORK INSURANCE SUPERINTENDENT ERIC DINALLO ON BOND INSURERS New York State Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo issued the following statement today: âClearly it is important to resolve issues related to the bond insurers as soon as possible. However, it must be understood that these are complicated issues involving a number of parties and any effective plan will take some time to finalize. In the meantime, we will not respond to the inevitable rumors. We believe it is important that the goals of market stability, protection for policyholders and a healthy and competitive bond insurance market be realized in the near future.â
That's nowhere near a statement of "bailing." They're simply saying they're not going to have a plan gift wrapped for the market in the next five minutes.
Then try this. http://www.cnbc.com/id/22823057 Bankers Downplay Reports of Bond Insurer Rescue Bankers who met with New York insurance regulators to discuss a reported bailout of troubled bond insurers downplayed the meeting's significance Thursday, with one calling it a "non-event." Eric Dinallo NY State New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo said a bailout would involve "complicated issues." Bankers told CNBC that there was no consensus formed at the meeting and no movement on creating substantial plans for a rescue. Moreover, reports of the meeting may have made a bad situation for the industry worse, bankers said, as a subsequent jump in bond insurer stock prices scared off private equity firms that may otherwise have injected capital into the companies. (continued)
So a one day rally in stocks that are down about 90% off their highs is going to end all progress on the bond insurance problem? I don't think so. I think the statement by Dinallo is pretty clear and the article from CNBC is of a more speculative nature. This isn't a problem that can be walked away from.