We should have fallen 15% min based on the bank chaos . Were basically flat . The bearishness astounding . Last 14 months . Russia / Ukraine, rates from 0-5%, oil hit $130 , earnings flat to down,Banks in chaos . And we can’t even give back 1 full year of a 12 year bull mkt ( S&P ended near 3800 yr end 2021 . The shorts are stacked. The Ken Calhoun indicator spot on . Sunday night he was licking his chops saying collapse .
You stretched the daily price chart Y-axis far far too much. You should stretch the daily day range chart Y-axis. Look at the massive DAX day range over the past few days. It is the day traders' dream ; there are tons and tons of trading opportunities for them. They are laughing all the way to the banks. Swing traders who shorted it must be weeping and grinding their teeth in despair.
Investors have been well-trained over the past 14 years. Selling out is insane because the Fed will ride to the rescue and you'll be left holding your dick, and maybe out of a job. 10yr at 3.5% says 'higher for longer' is BS. Will the market be right? Place your bets.
I would just say "you would think we would have fallen 15%" rather than actually should have. Otherwise, I pretty much agree with you on everything else. The fact we didn't, the fact that the S&P and NDX both finished up on the week, was pretty telling. If you're trying to trade based on how you feel, based on the news, you're pretty much screwed.
Because even the rate hikes is pure virtue signaling. Nobody in leadership is serious about the underlying issues in the economy. The Fed balance sheet tells you everything you need to know...