https://www.axios.com/2022/12/16/the-missing-workers-who-are-never-coming-back The missing workers who are never coming back Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell struck a particularly somber note at his press conference earlier this week when he mentioned that one reason the labor market is so tight right now is that many workers died from COVID-19. The big picture: Economists have theorized for a while about the impact of COVID deaths on the labor market. Now, research has started to emerge and key public figures like Powell are starting to talk about it explicitly. "Close to a half a million who would have been working ... died from COVID," Powell said while talking about the U.S. labor shortage. Go deeper: In a footnote to a speech he gave on Nov. 30, Powell estimates that 400,000 working-age Americans died in excess of what was anticipated pre-pandemic. State of play: Compared to pre-pandemic projections, there are around 3.5 million people effectively missing from the American workforce, as Powell explained in that speech at the Brookings Institution. This number includes older workers who left the labor force earlier than expected. "These excess retirements might now account for more than 2 million of the ... shortfall," he said. The other 1.5 million comes from a decline in immigration and "a surge in deaths." Overall, 1.09 million Americans lost their lives to COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins data. Our thought bubble: The role these deaths play in the economy often gets overlooked, possibly because it's so devastating to contemplate. But when considering the state of the U.S. workplace, it's worth remembering that many Americans lost colleagues, friends and loved ones over the past few years. It's a toll that will take many years to understandand lifetimes to grieve.
An Unexplained 2.3 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report Showing this another way, there were 158.5 million employed workers in March 2022... and 158.6 million in October 2022 an increase of just 150K, during a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.5 million! So what's going on here? The simple answer: there has been no change in the number of people actually employed, but due to deterioration in the economy, more people are losing their higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into much lower- paying, benefits-free part-time jobs, which also forces many to work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey. Meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good at least until after the midterms . https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/s...llion-jobs-gap-emerges-broken-payrolls-report
I did witness a lot of Karen boomers who've never had a tough day in their lives retire early because "masks and vaccine are oppression" so that explains a lot of those numbers. I made a case earlier this week that the fed should be in charge of labor visa issuance to control wage inflation due to labor shortage.
Well, I happen to be an early retiree boomer, although I believe in both vaccines and masks. COVID shut down my industry for 2 years and looking for work as you approach 60 is daunting, particularly when it's no longer a necessity and the job offers emphasize commitment to long hours. I do think younger generations are comfortable with alternative work, like content creators promoted via Tik tok, YouTube and the likes. There's quite a lot of money to be made that way and I wouldn't be surprised if around half a million people are monetizing content today. Add the half a million COVID deaths and that is as good an explanation as any for the tight job market.
Covid deaths ha very little to do with the missing worker Total covid deaths 1,076,545 Total deaths under 65 age 268,000