The market is starting to price in more interest rate hikes than the Fed is indicating

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ipatent, Oct 28, 2021.

  1. ipatent

    ipatent

    The market is starting to price in more interest rate hikes than the Fed is indicating

    As inflation escalates, traders are expecting a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve than policymakers are currently indicating.

    The market Thursday morning briefly priced in a slightly better-than-even chance that the Fed hikes interest rates three times in 2022 as price pressures increase. In their most recent economic projections, Fed officials indicated a slight tilt to a hike next year, but only one.

    Traders see a 65% chance of the first hike coming in June, the second as soon as September (51%) and a 51% likelihood of a third move in February 2023, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. The most recent probability for December 2022 was 45.8%, but it had been above 50% earlier in the morning.
     
  2. sandy_s

    sandy_s

    Whatever it is - the last few days there has been some nice moves in fixed income instruments...
     
    twstn likes this.
  3. twstn

    twstn

    Been seeing good movers in the stock market as well. Now we just need more Vol for our Options Trader friends ;)
     
    sandy_s likes this.
  4. I have a different view - liquidity crunch in Asia.
     
    ipatent likes this.