the londonkid report

It's time to start my own thread. The trolling on Surf's thread got a little out of control and I can shoulder the blame for a lot of that. Here I am just going to put down thoughts I have on the markets from time to time. You will see me fess up when I get it wrong and massage the ego when it goes right. I watch all major markets and typically execute trades in oil, euro, pound & cad. The spoos is what I denote as the US risk assets barometer, hence why I analyse it.

Here is how I am seeing spoos going into Friday's close. I am calling a pullback to 1910 spoos cash and 1955 cash to be hit by Friday's close. Let's see how I do.

oh yeah and I only look at price and time nothing else.

 

i saw this coming, now waiting for 2000s to short

 

good on you if you caught a good portion of this risk move. I caught some in oil but not as much as I would have liked.

 

i've caught a small chunk of the moves in oil and gold

going to wait for 2000 before i touch ES

 

Just before you steal my thunder I am calling 2000 cash in spoos, shortly followed by 2040 cash in spoos by the end of Q1. I have stated this earlier in the year but I am putting it out there now. Ultimately though I do believe we will see spoos through 1800 in the longer term and another round of QE in the US. I don't have a timescale for this as there are too many unknowns.

 

Thank you for following my suggestion to start your own journal. Would be great also to hear your thoughts on 'oil, euro, pound & cad' as those are your preferred instruments.

 

thats cool Surf/Surf's wife/debit lol. I am keeping this thread generic risk assets for the moment.

 

I am calling 102.50 in dxy by Q1 end.

 

i think the spoos high could be in for now and the pullback begins. Several reasons for this. Consider this sort of buying behaviour off a rising trend line below. I don't want to attract a 7hit storm here but dealers use these points to flatten out inventory. The last little run up was oil based. Of course I could be wrong but I fully expect this rising trend line to be taken at some stage.

 

So these are CFD charts? Posting a TL based upon a dealer-mkt is pretty pointless. The ES is trading 26 as I type this, not 30. We can't even trade that stuff here in the US. You may want to chart an exchange product as probably 95% of the people here trade the futures.

So you really think a TL that is 20 ticks (30.70 - 25.70) below the market will be taken out? A TL five points below the market? That is significant to you?