(please be aware that english is not my mother tounge, i will probably make mistakes, but i think my english is sufficient that you understand what my point is) Hi All, this is my last attempt trying to master the markets, or at least to not blow out my account. I will share my thoughts, my trades, it is a live account i am trading with, so no Sim or Demo trading BS. First of all i want to share some thoughts with you: I think nearly every beginning retail trader thinks that he is some sort of more intelligent than the average, loosing trader. I doubt, that anybody thinks, that he doesn't have the intellect to trade, but starts trading anyway. I think, that guys starting trading can show any kind of proof that they are in some form of successful with either their profession or in any other competitive area, like sports. Let us examine how one guy can excel at his profession. The first necessary condition that this guy needs to have, to stand out from the crowd, is some kind of talent. Obviously, you would not want to study mathematics if you were not able to solve basic differential equations. You would not want to become a doctor if you can't understand how the human body works. When you study at an university for example, the exams give you feedback on how good you are doing what a guy in this profession should be able to do. You are in a constant cyclical process of studying hard and proofing with exams that you are capable of exercising the profession. You have meetings with the professor that can give you feedback. You have fellow students that can give you feedback. The constant studying-feedback-cycle shows you if you are doing a good job. Now, the day comes when this guy graduates and finds a job. After a few years, he puts his knowledge in action. He becomes really good at it. Why? He built a foundation first and then learned on the job from a guy who has years of experience. This point is crucial. Through mistakes and errors he received feedback from the mentor and finally and hopefully he is in a position now, that he knows what he does. I think, this type of guys start trading with high hopes, that, because of their previous success, if they put the needed effort in learning to trading, they too, can make money. But what says empirical data about traders? Statistics from brokers show that the majority of retail traders loose money trading. I read research papers that in spite of that large amount of traders loosing money intraday trading, there is a group of traders that make huge sums of money. This one research paper i read, concludes that the losses of the majority of day traders is correlated to trading frequency and volume, hence overtrading. The day traders, that make money trade less often intraday, and their relative intraday volume is much smaller, but profits much bigger. Obviously, these guys are in a way more patient. I don't know though if they hold positions for greater profit targets or just pick the right spots to enter trades. This research paper is from 2015 for KOSPI 200 futures. here is the link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10293523.2012.11082543 So, the question is: why do hard working guys, previously some kind of successful in their lifes, loose money in the long run trading the markets intraday? i don't know if i have the answer, but first let me share my experience with you: i started watching markets in my early 20's. back then i was a mechanical engineer student. i am really good with numbers. i thought, my math skills could shed light to the chaotic moves in the markets. as a newbie, i started reading trading books. only technical analysis type of books. i read about candlesticks, candlestick patterns, candlestick correlations, trends, fibonaccis, indicators, intramarket correlations, market cylces, volume profile, market profile, orderflow, footprint, DOM trading, commitments of traders reports and 100 other stuff i can't recall right now. i have tons of books and trading courses. i watched equity indexes, commodities, currencies and bond markets. i analyzed every market with every tool i learned. Well, obviously, it didn't help much as you can imagine, otherwise i would sit on a sunny beach somewhere in the world, drink cocktails with my model girlfriend, and not write that journal in my homebase. (LOL) to sum up, i have a bachelors degree in mechanical eng. and masters degree in chemical eng. at work, i program simulation software with C++ that solve complex fluid flow phenomena (highly complex partial differential equations) so, why did i fail so hard, so far? do the tools not work or am i in reality an idiot? i think the main problem is that i thought that the trading educators are some kind of successful mentors that can show me how to trade. how many trading courses do you know that show any kind of success? track record? real money trading? ---> if you ask for any of that, you will not be accepted as student, how dare you? are the testimonials on the website not proof enough that we produce successful traders that print money faster than the FED? (again LOL) i think that the markets are not, in the classical sense (see above) a place for constant feedback, that will enhance your performance, you will blow out accounts faster than you think. the tools that every educator teaches are never ever going to predict market moves. how can it? the markets are a two-way auction with dozenz of participants, how can any tool predict, when and why a guy throws in 1 lot, or 100 lots at market? how do you want to compete from your home with HFT's that are physically at the exchange for orderflow? can you pull your order faster than computers at the exchange that track every move in the correlated markets? let's take the E-mini S&P futures. Algos track every tick in any other correlated market: options, ETF's, fair value in underlying stocks, mispricing between contracts (micro ES). they analyze the size and speed of orders in those markets SIMULTANIOUSLY. they analyze where they are in the qeue, what the probability is to get a fill, what the probability is to get an adverse selection, they can enter and exit at lightspeed! what kind of information do you want to see in the Bookmap to compete with this super fast algos that are living in the moment, whereas you have a latency from your home to the exchange, which means you are seconds late to the party, which means years in terms of HFT time. how do you want to process all the information in your human brain? what kind of information does the candle you watch on 5 min basis give you? is a large green bar information enough for you that can forecast the next minutes? i highly doubt it! i highly doubt that any technical chart you get for free from your broker can help you with any prediction. i highly doubt that you lack the skill and money to compete with HFT's. now you probably ask yourself, why i give trading a last shot. by no means i am addicted to trading. i hate it to loose. i already know what my chances for success are. i think there might be an edge for intraday traders, but i don't mean any technical stuff. i will soon post something related to my current approach. i think with good money management it can produce some nice profits. i won't trade my tiny account to 1 mio in one month or 10 years. i highly doubt one can achieve that performance without taking high risks. i will not be trading for income! i think trading for income, from the retail side, is a way of blowing out accounts really soon. i probably won't trade every day, but i will watch the markets every day. if you trade for income as a retail trader, you are screwed, you will need to pay bills, food, rent and depend on trading frequency. i don't know if you pay tax in your country. in socialist germany we do! and it is not a small percentage! thats it for now. if you want to share your thoughts, you can write on my journal. i am happy to interact with fellow traders.
DIdnt read the whole thing. You dont need to be a math wiz to be successful at trading - its almost irrelevant. Overtrading is real. Volume/ trading size is relative. The people that lose due to volume have a mental block and are probably trading bigger than their account size can handle. 2% of 20k and 2% of a Mil are vastly different but still 2% - therefore it should not matter. Most day traders lose because, quite simply, they think they are smarter than what they are or they overcomplicate shit. Some oversaturate their knowledge and then end up getting confused instead of following one type of system and trying to learn it perfectly. This goes back to most traders thinking they have learned it perfectly and it must be the system when in fact they are arrogant morons. Stop trying to beat the market and ride the market instead. NO one is beating the market any time soon. What works for a 1billion trading account will not work for a 2k trading account and Vise Versa. If you arent trading for income whats the point? This is a way to sike yourself out so you dont make bad decisions. Focus on making good decisions and thats it. You wont magically get somewhere because you "dont trade for income" . Thats enough for now. Good luck.
Where is your trading journal? The trades that you have done, their prices, quantities and etc. Want to share with us these info. since this is a trading journal?
Op shows a typical example of looking at the wrong things. High intelligence, analytical and constant looking at trading as a technology that has to be beaten to have an edge. I know a lot of traders spending years and years on this loop. Repeating the same mistake over and over again getting nowhere. I also have been there and done that. It took me some other roads to find what it is all about. I help now also other traders to get 'it'. I show them in real life how I do it. Although I did it for free, I charge now, just to filter the no' commitment kind of guys.
markets go up correct and then either the correction ends and it goes up or it continues to correct and become a down trend. that is all the market does. all the time. keep this in mind and then try to figure out your trades. cut losses fast........the market can do far many more things than you can allow for....so do not wonder, just cut loss and then wonder
in that case why do you not ask them to pay it to your favorite charity since you have too much money any way with your success...... that way you give back to the society you live in and help those less fortunate.
that is more important thna your trades. always list the reasons you took the trades.... that is what should be in a journal..not only trades it does not matter whether you made a dollar or a milllion usd
The biggest problem is that you don't have proven track record. If you have, paying you for the service is definitely worth it