The illusion of explanatory depth

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Tuxan, Oct 9, 2024.

  1. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    An interesting article that discusses a study examining why many are so often confidently wrong in their judgments. The backbone of Trumpism is people who don't suffer from being wrong and think that they have as good an opinion as anybody.

    Researchers found that individuals tend to believe they have enough information to form an opinion even when they only know part of the story. In the study, participants who read arguments favoring one position (merging or staying separate) about a school merger were confident in their opinions, even though they hadn't seen all perspectives. However, when they were later presented with the opposing viewpoint, many were willing to change their minds and became less confident about their judgments.

    A key conclusion of the study is that people are more open-minded than we assume, and when given new plausible information, they can reconsider their views. However, this flexibility doesn’t extend to long-held beliefs, such as political opinions.

    The study contrasts with the Dunning-Kruger effect
    , which suggests that people with low ability overestimate their competence.

    In this case, it's not about low competence but a cognitive bias where individuals fail to recognize that their information is incomplete, leading to overconfidence. This phenomenon is called the "illusion of explanatory depth," where people believe they understand something well until they are asked to explain it in detail. The takeaway is that curiosity and humility are key to overcoming this bias.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/science-think-right-rcna174691
     
    longandshort and faet like this.
  2. notagain

    notagain

    Part of the story is all we get, surmise the rest.
    Kamala's brain has been chemically altered from having a high IQ. like her father, into the robotic, over rehearsed and insecure mess we see now.
     
  3. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    Trump face-plants again while trying to insult Harris’ intelligence

    Trump: Actually, now that you’re mentioning it, I think they should do a double 25th Amendment — just get ’em both out. Who’s third in line? Because it’s just terrible.


    Shapiro: The speaker, Mike Johnson.
     
  4. Ricter

    Ricter

    Yeah, but the other choice... Donald's brain has been chemically altered from having a low IQ, like his father, into the drooling, rambling, even lower IQ mess we see now.
     
    Tuxan likes this.
  5. Ricter

    Ricter

    An old friend comes to mind. An "arch" libertarian, he learned everything he needs to know about economics and politics from reading Ayn Rand. Over the years, as events have gone and continue to go in the opposite direction he thinks they should, he has stopped reading the news and stopped using social media (they make him too angry).
    At this time nothing of any value comes from discussing issues with him, he has only the vaguest reply to anything, since he doesn't know the details, and that reply is usually some variant of, "liberty!"
    He doesn't use drugs, his IQ has not fallen chemically, so what would we call an IQ lowering by way of Ayn Rand?
     
    Snuskpelle and Tuxan like this.
  6. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    We might call it "philosophical tunnel vision" or "ideological ossification," where someone's mental flexibility diminishes as they cling tightly to a specific worldview.

    As they say, you know you are talking to a capital L Libertarian because everything they say is somehow quite wrong.
     
  7. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    I know a Libertarian here in Colombia who genuinely believes that the only reason there are sexually transmitted diseases is "condoms prevent sex workers from developing natural immunity. "

    Where do you begin?

    Most of the libertarians here use prostitutes as normal intelligent women get the ick. They vocally support "working girls".

    They say that libertarians have the lowest natural threshold of disgust, too low even for liberals.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2024
    Ricter likes this.
  8. Ricter

    Ricter

    Ha, that reminds me of an argument from long ago:
    "We would evolve immunity to these diseases if we left things alone."
    "Yeah, but Nature continues to evolve her disease's ability to overcome immunity."
     
    Tuxan likes this.
  9. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    Yep.

    A friend in London works for one of the large borough councils, part of her responsibility is health data. Hasidic Jewish wives have the highest levels of STDs by a league vs the other ethnic group females because the men like their prostitutes. God says using condoms is a sin. So they bring everything home.

    Every few years when the report is made they have to find ways to bury that so they don't fall foul of the usual suspects.
     
    Ricter likes this.
  10. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    Well done :) I started to respond to him twice but my muse decided she needed to take a Xanax.
     
    #10     Oct 10, 2024
    Ricter likes this.