The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by dealmaker, Feb 2, 2020.

  1. dealmaker

    dealmaker

  2. mlawson71

    mlawson71

    What an interesting guy.
     
  3. easymon1

    easymon1

    Bill Benter...so immediately after finishing a university physics degree in 1977,[3]-(wikipedia) he went to the blackjack tables in Las Vegas.

    B-berg article:
    "...In 1980 he’d just applied for a job as a night cleaner at McDonald’s when his buddies introduced him to the man who would change his life. Alan Woods was the leader of an Australian card-counting team that had recently arrived in Las Vegas. Woods was then in his mid-30s, with a swoop of gray hair and cold blue eyes. Once an insurance actuary with a wife and two kids, he’d decided one day that family life wasn’t for him and began traveling the world as an itinerant gambler.

    Woods impressed Benter with his tales of fearlessness, recounting how he’d sneaked past airport security in Manila with $10,000 stuffed into his underwear. Most appealing, he pursued the card counter’s craft with discipline. His team pooled its cash and divided winnings equitably. Having more players reduced the risk of a run of bad luck wiping out one’s bankroll, and the camaraderie offset the solitary nature of the work. Benter joined the squad.

    Within six weeks, he found himself playing blackjack in Monte Carlo, served by waiters in dinner jackets. He felt like James Bond, and his earnings grew to a rate of about $80,000 a year. Benter abandoned any idea of returning to college."
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    https://populous.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Hong-Kong-Jockey-Club-Getty-web-2-1024x576.jpg
    not too shabby. He could prob buy and sell the joint, lol.
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    "...
    Benter wanted something more rigorous, so he went to the library at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, which kept a special collection on gaming. Buried in stacks of periodicals and manuscripts, he found what he was looking for—an academic paper titled “Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races.” Benter sat down to read it, and when he was done he read it again.

    The paper argued that a horse’s success or failure was the result of factors that could be quantified probabilistically. Take variables—straight-line speed, size, winning record, the skill of the jockey—weight them, and presto! Out comes a prediction of the horse’s chances. More variables, better variables, and finer weightings improve the predictions. The authors weren’t sure it was possible to make money using the strategy and, being mostly interested in statistical models, didn’t try hard to find out. “There appears to be room for some optimism,” they concluded.

    Benter taught himself advanced statistics and learned to write software on an early PC with a green-and-black screen."

    bill benter.jpg
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020