Time: Dec 1983 Market: Orange juice The Scenario: Bought Oj in August dreaming for a Freeze in Florida winter. Went to Maui Christmas week…had breakfast at Kapalua Hotel every morning. On 3rd day at breakfast, picked up complimentary Honolulu newspaper and on the Front page was a pic (like here) with the Headline “Big Freeze in Florida”. The Trade Outcome: 5 days limit up (with expanded limits kicking in) and traded higher the next 2 weeks. Mental Outcome: I thought I was a 23 year old Genius…at the end of January “tripled up” and reversed short (going for the down payment on that Malibu beach house)…and then proceeded to Lose ALL the Winnings riding it out for an agonizing 10 weeks (very stupid)!!! But from that point on…”Hooked for Life!!! ”
Not exactly a success story, more like a lesson learned. I bought TransSwitch (TXCC) when i first started trading in 2001. I saw some hack on Bloomberg talking about it like it was the next MSFT and the lady on Bloomberg was fawning over this guy's talking up the company's future earnings. She was cooing and ah-ing over the good news with such fervor I thought she was getting a hand job under the table in the studio. I figured everyone must be seeing this good news so how can you lose, right? Well I ended up buying it at the highest it traded from that day on. I lost over 10 bucks a share, 2500 total, before I gave up and sold the POS at low five and change. It taught me a valuable lesson about the amount of bullshit coming out of these front running turd analysts and their minions on CNBC etc. That was the day I became a technician and ignored everything else. I've since looked at the chart at the time I bought it and would never even had considered it anything but a raging short. 14 years later I'm still in the game.
My first electronic trade on the ES, was using a dial up modem while living in the Yukon Territory. It was in the late 90's, and there I was connected electronically to the S&P pit. Changed my life forever...
Wow...your experience is eerily similar to mine. For me, it was coffee in 1994, and I was 28 at the time. I had same mentality as you, young and stupid.
Randomness…, albeit gratification…, disappointment..., or anything else trading related – only occurs if / when the trader is random - in their thinking..., actions..., and/ or expectations Mkt is absolutely uncertain Uncertainty is mutually exclusive of randomness with regard to the mkt RN
Very much agree, RN. But the truth is: most strategies people try are not much better than random in the long run.
It appears you're attempting to lay off blame onto the strategy As opposed to the trader - who implements said system..., who maintains sole control of when, where, how..., whatever said system - is implemented =========== Give me a so called random system...., even a so called losing random system - $5.00 bucks says I can make it consistently profitable Only stipulation - the system must be complete (nothing left for me to interpret/ create on the fly) Big words for a dumbass redneck - if I do say so RN
Agree with Agree with @Redneck I once won a public trading contest and it was based solely on my public declaration that money management was more important than trade entries. I simply flipped a coin 30 mins after open and went long or short based on the coin outcome... After that I manged it. All trades were real time. A month later I had won... Much to the chagrin of those super system traders.