Tether: Rubber Will Soon Meet The Road

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by GlobalMacro90, Mar 26, 2025.

  1. I know I have been mildly obsessed with this story, and the irrational insistence (in my view of course) that people know that Tether is a fraud and thus bitcoin is going to go down (which doesn't make a ton of sense, but whatever).

    Well, we will know our answer soon. A US stable coin bill is imminent (Genius act is already drafted) and Trump wants it on his desk by the summer. We will see how the final bill shakes out, but some things are obviously going to be in there:

    • US regulated stablecoins likely will need to submit to an audit
    • Some high percentage of the reserves (maybe even 100%) that backs the coins will likely need to be in high quality, short duration debt (aka short treasury bonds and bills, repo)
    • Im sure there will be liquidity ratios to ensure that a stablecoin issuer can honor a lot of short-term redemptions
    • Will likely need some kind of insurance and the stablecoin company would be liable if something fishy is going on.

    So D-day is nearly here. If Tether wants to do business in the US, they are going to have to clean up their balance sheet (no more loans to un-specified parties).

    Tether also owns commodities (bitcoin, gold) with the reserves so I think that would likely need to be sold too? (but maybe if they hold something like bitcoin/gold in EXCESS of thier liabilities, aka the amount of the stablecoin outstanding, then maybe they can do it? I dont know)

    Bottom line is - Tether will have to make a decision. Clean up its act and comply with US stablecoin laws or dont, and be the main non-US based stablecoin (which honestly they would be fine and likely continue to make a lot of money).

    With the CEO Paolo spending a lot of time in Washington recently, I think they will want to comply with US laws so they can access the big daddy US market. We shall see. At long last, we will get an answer.

    My question is - IF (I know big IF) Tether does comply with the US laws, which will be something like outlined above, will tether truthers finally admit they have been being dramatic? And if so, and this is your non-logical reason to not buy bitcoin, does that change your calculus or will there be another reason now not to buy it?

    I will admit -- if Tether does not comply -- that I have been being too flippant about the whole thing and Tether really is the huge risk some people think it is.

    Clocks ticking

    @RedDuke @orbit23 @Tokenz @Pekelo @johnarb @engineering
     
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  2. orbit23

    orbit23

    I am afraid this will not turn out the way you expect it to.

    If Tether was legit they would have been audited a long time ago.

    Look what happened to Tesla and how it was attacked. Imagine the same happens to Tether. There will be an attack and once there is a bank run it will collapse. Bitcoin will go down with it; probably before it as they own tons of Bitcoins and will be selling to defend the peg.
     
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  3. you say this ... my point is the time for talking is nearly over. We will see very soon.

    But the math isnt mathing man. Tether's total market cap is 140 billion. 5.7% of that is bitcoin, so thats about 8 billion in bitcoin.

    https://tether.to/en/transparency/?tab=reports

    Bitcoins market cap currently is 1.8 trillion! How is 8 billion in selling pressure going to tank a 1.8 trillion dollar asset? Do you have an explanation?
     
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  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    Tether USDT is crypto digital USD... there are many others out there we can switch to

    The failure of USDT or any stablecoin is not an existential risk that most or a lot of ET believe that it is

    BUSD failed or rather closed down a couple of years ago, no one in crypto ecosystem noticed

    USDC was on the brink of collapse during the silicon valley bank failure a couple of years ago, and bitcoin went up in price, so did USDT

    USDT was almost wiped out in the early days, was 80 cents, but no one here remembers because it did not cause any problems

    I use and prefer USDT over USDC and other stablecoins due to liquidity and support everywhere, especially in DeFi,
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2025
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  5. Yes! This I never understood. Stablecoins are (and will be more in the future) completely and utterly commoditized. Its just a money market fund represented on the blockchain for god sake.

    If tether is a fraud, everybody will just use another stable. I dont get the hysteria.
     
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  6. Yeppers... :thumbsup:

    I agree... :thumbsup:
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2025
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    Tbh, USDT failure is a threat to the US Treasury markets being that it's one of the biggest holders of US Treasuries, it can literally crash that market if they are forced to dump, and the interest rates will shoot up, causing systemic failures in the global financial system

    I actually think Tether is tbtf at this point

    Blackrock, JPM and the Fed will just do an eminent domain or buy it out, just talk to the current US commerce secretary for the takeover
     
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  8. 2rosy

    2rosy

    all these stablecoins have the ability to freeze wallets and take your money if govt wants it.
     
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    No, they do not have the ability to freeze wallets

    Centralized stablecoins such as Tether can freeze their respective stablecoin token but only if there is a legitimate and justified and documented request from recognized authority, i.e. court order,

    Switch to smartcontract stablecoin or don't be an asshole and commit a crime
     
    semperfrosty likes this.
  10. 2rosy

    2rosy

    yes, they can and have. If you look at how these are developed it's simple to do

    https://dailycoin.com/tether-new-wallet-freezing-policy/
    https://brownstone.org/articles/the-stablecoin-trap-the-backdoor-to-total-financial-control/
    https://www.circle.com/legal/usdc-risk-factors
     
    #10     Mar 26, 2025
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