Tenneco TEN takeover spread

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by blueraincap, Jun 6, 2022.

  1. Apollo taking it out at $20 a piece, expected to close in 2H, TEN now at 17%, $3 (18%) spread.

    Breakup fee merely $1ish per share and TEN traded at $10 pre-deal. Name can go back to 12-13 if no deal.

    Key risk is TEN has some operations in Russia which aren't material (1-2% of total sales) and officially requires regulatory approvals from Russia to get done. Deal announced a few days before the actual invasion and guys bagged it into the terms. Apollo can fuck the Russian operations and so forgo approvals, but that is an option in Apollo's hands.

    A fairly typical takeout company at a decent valuation, all things look fine except the Russian approval thing. Shareholders voting on 7th June (tomorrow as of today) and will most likely go through without any drama, so can expect some price action tomorrow's afternoon EST. $1 move up to $18 is likely in June to reach a more reasonable 10%ish deal spread.

    Expect the deal to close according to original timeline despite some Russian jittery. Based on a downside 12-13 price, payoff at $17 is symmetrical and odds of closing is meaningfully higher than nonclosing, so like this spread trade.
     
    Gambit likes this.