I'm an old investor...I've been though a lot; 1980-81 interest rate killer, 1987 market crash, the 2001 tech bubble (Pets.com), and 2008. During those days, you had companies (flush with cash) that could pick off the best companies that had great concepts (products), but were dying on the vine (lack of cash). Think of a drug company that is in the start of a phase 3 trial, that is running out of money. It seems that a year or two from now you will have bio tech, robotics, and software companies that could be ripe for the picking. Rate should be up, and these companies can not get their products to market. The bank (or hedge fund) is ready to take them back (if they haven't already). The bank has to unload them (get them off their books). The question is, who will be the companies that will pick though to find the gems in the rust pile? Will a company like GE, have their own dedicated division, to look for the value that others may disregard? Please shoot these companies down (if you can); Apple, Pfizer, GE, 3M, McDonald's (robotics), Microsoft. Can you come up with any other companies that does deep searches for distressed companies?? Thanks... Ps I'll share a paragraph about 1980-81 interest rate issues. The Fed funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, hit 20 percent in 1980, and 21 percent in June 1981. The cause was an inflationary spiral brought on by rising oil prices, government overspending and rising wages.
> Who picks though the bones to find value? Value investor here, who uses derivates to get a much better bargain and income along the way. I'm going to be on the hook for assignment of Netflix at Bill Ackman's strike levels, but I was ok with that going into it, also going to be on the hook for a boatload of Roku, COIN, and even PayPal once my short-puts start to expire. Very unlikely I'm going to roll those, but maybe. I wanted a little bit of each so will be happy with it. Only other US equity I 'may' get assigned will be Sonos (I want more of them actually). Looks like I won't have caught the bottom for these high-flying tech stocks, but I still waited patiently and got them at massive discount from their highs. Even a better discount than where Cathie Wood said they were now 'Deep Value Territory'. So I guess I am in super-duper-value-territory. See? I'm so smart even when I fail to time the bottom. Haw! Chanos so far did good on his COIN short that millennials mocked him for... People get 'sooooo' fucking offended these days just because SOMEONE shorted their favorite stock. Tesla cultists are the worst in that regard.
I think we are pretty far from a scooping- up-bargains situation, at least in US stocks. The tech bust, if there's going to be one, has barely begun; a few of the worst bubble offenders from 2020-21 have deflated back to the starting gate, but many haven't and there's no sign yet of carnage in the private startup market. Most of the market generals are barely off ATHs.
Too bad more people don’t realize this. 12+ years of the Fed destroying all semblance of true price discovery doesn’t unwind in 4 months.
Yes, I think we all know we are not close to that situation. If there is ANY value, the company will be found out and bid up accordingly. The question still remains...Which large companies (with cash), will picks though the massive bone pile when it comes?? Not putting down any program or platform...Just showing examples close to home. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/resources/ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/link-forums/brokers.89/ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/link-forums/brokers.89/
You seem to have fallen for the EMH fallacy. There are multiple equities that have positive EPS and are trading at pre-pandemic fire-sale prices. Those bargains won't last forever... I'm really not sure what other miracle you are looking for... It is of course true a lot of stuff is still over-priced, even that PoS HOOD is miraculously trading just above $10 (how is that possible???). Square still looks like a good short, it's not come down anywhere near where it should be.
One more quick example... https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...d-smart.aspx&usg=AOvVaw0W3dWIvx5Hs5SLVF4yN8Dt