Note: This is not a live account (IB Paper Trade). (Refer to TBA99 Trade Journal 2012 for more info). The purpose of this journal is to record the overall results for this phase of testing. Live calls will be made on Twitter under the account: TBA99_SIM. Trading is US equities only. Stock Criteria: Price: $40.00 - $100.00 Avg. Volume: >2M Daily Trading Range: >$0.75 Trading Targets: Testing Period: January 1, 2014 â January 31, 2015 Style: Hedge (Discretionary) Account 1: A-1 Opening Balance: $1,000,000.00 Account 2: A-2 Opening Balance: $1,000,000.00 Target Return: 25% Target Profit: $500,000.00 Trading Block: 2000 Shares Draw Down: <5% This will be the final testing phase for this project. Posting to ET, making live calls (via twitter), and recording results with the IB paper trade reporting features will help confirm the success of the strategy. Trades are initiated from both the long /short sides, and use a mixture of long term, swing trading, and daytrading styles. There is also a dividend component. Due to the discretionary nature and encapsulation characteristics of the strategy, there is little concern of reverse engineering. While I donât have a formal university background in economics, math, computer science, stats, etc. what I do bring to the table is 10+ years of strategy development, interpreting live charts, and SIM execution based on fundamentals, TA, and news. My reasons for posting on ET are very simple. Proving the strategy in real-time may present opportunity. My goals include; (1)-trading strategy (via start-up company), (2) subscription service (calling entry / exit points), or (3) sell strategy . The project is slated to run to January 31, 2015. I would hope that ET members would give the trading results a chance before hitting the journal with negative flames.
Project preparation is underway. I tested some live calls on Twitter today. Future tweets will include time stamps to document accuracy of calls. The results can be viewed at www.linksint.com. There is a learning curve when integrating the live calls into the trading strategy. First, psychologically nobody wants to call losing trades especially when just beginning the process. Second, monitoring and making calls on seven different stocks, plus tweeting live calls will be busy at times. Especially, when opening and closing multiple positions. Attached is a picture of the trading system that will be used to test the strategy. Note: the trade setups displayed on the screens in the picture are not the actual setups used in testing the strategy.
Sorry for the attachment problem. The trading system can be viewed at the following link. http://www.linksint.com/images/Trader.jpg
Weekly Results: 2013-12-09 to 2013-12-13 Twitter Live Calls: Calls: 7 Wins: 5 Loses: 0 Open Positions: 2 Total Gain: $1.49 Avg. Gain: $0.3725 2014 Results: Total Account Balance 2014-01-01: NA Total Account: NA Account 1: NA Account 2: NA ROI: NA Note: During the project in 2014, I will be posting weekly results. Live calls were tweeted on Twitter this week. I am still optimizing the contents of the broadcast to integrate with testing of the strategy. There is also a learning curve to manually tweet out the trades in real-time. Looking forward to calling a few more live trades this week.
Results: 2013-12-09 to 2013-12-20 For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com Twitter Live Calls: Calls: 18 Wins: 13 Loses: 0 Open Positions: 5 Total Gain: $5.25 Avg. Gain: $0.4038 2014 Results: Total Account Balance 2014-01-01: NA Total Account: NA Account 1: NA Account 2: NA ROI: NA Note: I wonât be calling any new positions on Twitter in the upcoming week, although I may close some of the open positions depending on market conditions. Phase 3 of the strategy testing will end on December 30, 2013. I will be posting those results to this journal. *** The title of the journal with reference to volume refers to Phase 4 of the strategy testing. Phase 3 testing used a small trading block volume of 200 shares. Phase 4 testing will use a trading block of 2000 shares, thus testing how the strategy handles higher volume.
Error in Last Post I wonât be calling any new positions on Twitter in the upcoming week, although I may close some of the open positions depending on market conditions. Phase 3 of the strategy testing will end on December 30, 2013. I will be posting those results to this journal. *** The title of the journal with reference to volume refers to Phase 4 of the strategy testing. Phase 3 testing used a small trading block volume of 200 shares. Phase 4 testing will use a trading block of 2000 shares, thus testing how the strategy handles higher volume. Should Read I wonât be calling any new positions on Twitter in the upcoming week, although I may close some of the open positions depending on market conditions. Phase 2 of the strategy testing will end on December 30, 2013. I will be posting those results to this journal. *** The title of the journal with reference to volume refers to Phase 3 of the strategy testing. Phase 2 testing used a small trading block volume of 200 shares. Phase 3 testing will use a trading block of 2000 shares, thus testing how the strategy handles higher volume.
Results: 2013-12-09 to 2013-12-27 For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com Twitter Live Calls: Calls: 18 Wins: 18 Loses: 0 Open Positions: 0 Total Gain: $10.92 Avg. Gain: $0.6066 2014 Results: Total Account Balance 2014-01-01: NA Total Account: NA Account 1: NA Account 2: NA ROI: NA Note: Closed the remaining open positions (previously called on Twitter) this week. All trades were profitable. Phase 2 testing is winding down (ends December 31, 2013). Calls on Twitter for the upcoming week will be very limited to short term calls for the sessions on Monday & Tuesday. Preparation for Phase 3 testing will begin this week. This phase of testing will stress test the strategy for volume. Trading volume will jump 10X from 200 shares to 2000 share. The strategy will also be tested over a larger selection of stocks meeting the trade criteria. Preparation work includes; (1) closing all current open positions, (2) resetting the balances of the 2 testing accounts , (3)rescanning stocks for trade selection criteria, and (4) adding new charting tools. Phase 3 testing will run for a 13 month period. The first month of trading will be used to sensitize oneself to the higher volumes involved and $$ amounts with respect to wins & losses. The goal of the project is to produce a ROI of 25% independent of market direction.
FYI: This information was originally posted on 2013-11-13 TBA99 - Trade Journal 2012. Final year end results to follow. Project Update: SIM Testing Phase 2 began January 1, 2013. Unfortunately, there was not enough time to post a daily journal to ET. In the past 11 months the project has continued to push forward. The strategy was completed in May 2013. Execution tests are ongoing. The hedge strategy has been designed specifically for stocks with a price range of $40.00 to $100.00, an average volume of 2M, and a daily price range of >$0.85. The strategy uses a mixture of different trading styles; long term, swing, and daytrading with an overall bias to the upside. Even though the bias is to the upside, the strategy is also dynamic, and can adapt to negative market conditions. All tests are performed in real-time (forward testing) using the IB paper trader. Trades are discretionary (not automated). To try and simulate the market as closely as possible, volume trades are initiated using 200 shares, limit orders are used to initiate trades, pre-market and after-market trades have been limited. Trade history is documented using the IB reports feature. The trading system has been designed to allow monitoring/trading of six individual stocks using two accounts. Both sides of the trade (long/short) can be held at the same time. The stocks used in the testing are: APA, CAT, CTXS, NOV, OXY, and SINA. These stocks have been used throughout the testing period: January 1, 2013 â November 12, 2013. Stock Prices: Stock..........DEC 31, 2013(CLOSE)..........NOV 12, 2013(CLOSE).............P/L$............................P/L% APA...................$78.50................................$89.71...........................+$11.21........................+14.28% CAT...................$89.61................................$83.85.............................-$5.76.........................-6.42% CTXS.................$65.62................................$60.95.............................-$4.67.........................-7.11% NOV...................$65.85................................$82.55..........................+$16.70........................+25.36% OXY...................$75.17................................$95.64..........................+$20.47........................+27.23% SINA..................$50.22................................$75.91..........................+$25.69........................+51.15% TOT/AVG........$424.97..............................$488.61........................+$63.64.......................+14.98% Testing Results: Account.............JAN 2, 2013..........NOV 12, 2013............P/L$..................P/L% Account 1.............$83115.59.............$118051.70...........+$34936.11............+42.03% Account 2.............$80166.93..............$74484.50..............-$5682.43.............-7.09% Total/AVG........$163282.52...........$192536.20..........+$29253.68..........+17.92% Current Return: 17.92% Max. Return (AUG 13, 2013): 20.26% Max. Draw Down (APR 19 2013): (-15.64%) The current return of 17.92% is still well under the target goal of 30% set for this project. Tweaking the strategy execution is ongoing. Execution has been satisfactory at best. There is lots of room for improvement, especially in the area of trade entry/exit and reducing overall the number of trades. Even if the strategy doesnât meet its target goal of 30% in 2013, the current results warrant that SIM Testing Phase 3 goes ahead in January 2014. The strategy will be tested for volume, where the volume will be increased 10X the current volume to 2000 shares per trade. This SIM project is scheduled to end on December 31, 2014. It is hoped that at some point during 2014 that the system will be able to make the transitional jump from SIM to a live account.
PREVIOUS POST ERROR: Stock Prices: Stock..........DEC 31, 2013(CLOSE)..........NOV 12, 2013(CLOSE).............P/L$............................P/L% APA...................$78.50................................$89.71...........................+$11.21........................+14.28% CAT...................$89.61................................$83.85.............................-$5.76.........................-6.42% CTXS.................$65.62................................$60.95.............................-$4.67.........................-7.11% NOV...................$65.85................................$82.55..........................+$16.70........................+25.36% OXY...................$75.17................................$95.64..........................+$20.47........................+27.23% SINA..................$50.22................................$75.91..........................+$25.69........................+51.15% TOT/AVG........$424.97..............................$488.61........................+$63.64.......................+14.98% SHOULD READ: Stock Prices: Stock..........DEC 31, 2012(CLOSE)..........NOV 12, 2013(CLOSE).............P/L$............................P/L% APA...................$78.50................................$89.71...........................+$11.21........................+14.28% CAT...................$89.61................................$83.85.............................-$5.76.........................-6.42% CTXS.................$65.62................................$60.95.............................-$4.67.........................-7.11% NOV...................$65.85................................$82.55..........................+$16.70........................+25.36% OXY...................$75.17................................$95.64..........................+$20.47........................+27.23% SINA..................$50.22................................$75.91..........................+$25.69........................+51.15% TOT/AVG........$424.97..............................$488.61........................+$63.64.......................+14.98%
2013 Year End Results For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com Stock Prices: Stock..........DEC 31, 2012(CLOSE)..........DEC 31, 2013(CLOSE).............P/L$............................P/L% APA...................$78.50................................$85.94...........................+$11.21........................+14.28% CAT...................$89.61................................$90.81.............................-$5.76.........................-6.42% CTXS.................$65.62................................$63.25.............................-$4.67.........................-7.11% NOV...................$65.85................................$79.53..........................+$16.70........................+25.36% OXY...................$75.17................................$95.10..........................+$20.47........................+27.23% SINA..................$50.22................................$84.25..........................+$25.69........................+51.15% TOT/AVG........$424.97..............................$498.88........................+$73.91.......................+17.39% Testing Results: Account.............JAN 2, 2013..........DEC 31, 2013............P/L$..................P/L% Account 1.............$83115.59.............$125287.08...........+$42171.49............+50.74% Account 2.............$80166.93..............$68052.56..............-$12114.37.............-15.11% Total/AVG........$163282.52...........$193339.64..........+$29253.68..........+18.41% 2013 Return: 18.41% Max. Return (AUG 13, 2013): 20.26% Max. Draw Down (APR 19 2013): (-15.64%) Year in Review: This yearâs end results are a little disappointing. The target return was set at 30%. With the S&P500 up 29.6% itâs hard to get excited with only a 18.41% return. Strategy execution was a C- at best. So there is a lot of room for improvement on the execution side. Positives on the year include; (1) the first 18 live calls on Twitter (December) were all profitable, (2) posting a slightly higher return (18.41% vs 17.39%) for the six core stocks traded during 2013. The return is actually good if one takes into consideration that the strategy theory was only finalized in May, two hedge events due to travel in September (3 weeks) and October (1 week) and the liquidation of positions in December in preparation for Phase 3 testing in 2014. Forecast 2014 I am not expecting a huge draw down as was the case in 2013. Last yearâs maximum draw down occurred while the strategy was still being finalized. Therefore I expect the strategy to be positive straight out of the gate once testing begins. The target goal has been reduced from 30% to 25%. Note: Unfortunately, Phase 3 testing has been delayed. Live calls on Twitter will continue during the delay.