had a thought... taper will ensure usd/jpy above 100, as fed increases rate and jpn keeps rates record low, and this is bullish for stocks japan will host the 2020 olympics probably market history will repeat itself for japan 2013-2020 like china 2000-2007 with their bubble right before the olympics then a crash in 08 japan will keep interest rate ultra low, relative to fed rate, and heat up the economy, then not dare to kill the bubble right before the olympics, creating the top.... until then bullish for stocks all around maybe that huge move in early 2013 was the start of something real actually the more the fed tapers the more bullish for stocks back in the us bearish sentiment every time the market hits a new high, they start talking negative like record unemployment, food stamps #, etc. etc. nothing positive and anyone talking bullish is ridiculed... this is very bullish. nasdaq to hit the bubble highs within a year or two hft completely eliminated the mom and pop and destroyed 99.99999% of retail prop traders. however new hft regulations will create more opportunities for slow frequency traders, and as more non PhDs SFT profit, barrons will write about this, and will induce mom and pop to open up retail accounts again, this time instead of etrade they'll sit in front of wizetrade home quant edition. by automating trades you TOO can come home from your 9-5 job and see $500 profit every day. then the next step is why do 9-5 when can have no job and just use 2x margin and make $1000 a day. until doctors start trading stocks again in between patients and the shoeshine boy is trading stocks on his iWatch... any pullback is a buy let the party commence
Basically the stock market can go straight up without any pullback for about 5 years or so. That's the historical limit since stock markets began roughly three hundred years ago.
So the stock market has trebled all thanks to QE. Now when QE is stopped, it will go up EVEN MORE. The world has gone mad. This is probably the most dangerous bubble in history.
<I>"until doctors start trading stocks again in between patients and the shoeshine boy is trading stocks on his iWatch..."</I> That didn't happen in 2007
doctors and lawyers and shoeshine boys were abandoning their practice to become "hedge fund managers" Kenneth Cole came out with a shoe called "the hedgefund" cant make this stuff up mom and pop were flipping houses that's why financials and housing crashed first, which then took out the rest of the market
Sure, amateurs were getting excited, but the theme was slightly different. Note how each of the recent bubbles has been driven by a subtly different meme: 2000: It's a new economy. The internet means old valuations don't apply anymore. 2007: They're not making land anymore! Real estate can only go up. 2013: The Fed has you covered. Ben Bernanke will print more cash to make sure stocks never fall. What characterises a bubble is excitement among non professional investors coupled with a silly, illogical story they use to convince themselves that "it's different this time".