TA, like catching a greased pig

I like these ag commodities, along with other commodities.
The ETF for $Corn has performed as one of the best.
For daytraders and short term swing traders, obviously its trying to shake them out.
Yesterday, looked like this, breaking down.
Corn1



Today, looks like image 2, taking off.
Corn2



and if we look at the weekly, it a total long ball.
Not yet confirmed, but measures high 40s.
Corn3



Corn, the breakfast of Champions.
Either used to make protein (red meat and poultry) or milk products.
And in the past few decades, a booster for the energy complex.
Most people on the planet use it.

No doubt there's plenty of folks here who have been doing TA for a long time. But I think there's loads of folks here, where that isn't the case.
For the latter, just realize they don't give the money away on Wall street.
Be polite and do your homework.

Just saying.

 

seems like it will hang around the green zone for quite some time.

 

as opposed to fundamentals where price stays steady?

 

Yeah right, more than 90% of corn is genetically modified.

Bon appetit...

 

I did some trend and cycle analysis of the CORN ETF by fitting 10 curves to the most recent 123 calendar days of close prices with prices (20210125 through 20210527) and then extrapolating the curves for 21 calendar days.

The models for the curves are:

Code:

y = 16.7131156921387  -  0.0153137510642409 * x  +  0.000483304698718712 * x * x
    +  0.959539353847504 * cos(twopi / 63.4018692382697 * x  +  3.40450406074524)
    +  0.770700573921204 * cos(twopi / 43.3602527495009 * x  +  4.73570346832275)
    +  0.467519104480743 * cos(twopi / 34.7284220393245 * x  +  6.08380746841431) ;
y = 16.713436126709  -  0.0150419715791941 * x  +  0.000478885543998331 * x * x
    +  0.95742279291153 * cos(twopi / 63.8633323419881 * x  +  3.4558277130127)
    +  0.7980717420578 * cos(twopi / 43.3673122743544 * x  +  4.78270292282104)
    +  0.483296900987625 * cos(twopi / 35.3236032629264 * x  +  0.0110753700137138) ;
y = 16.7580909729004  -  0.0169391445815563 * x  +  0.000495195155963302 * x * x
    +  0.995058178901672 * cos(twopi / 62.4901849257942 * x  +  3.34408283233643)
    +  0.800124228000641 * cos(twopi / 44.1284251402229 * x  +  4.85770988464355)
    +  0.432926446199417 * cos(twopi / 35.0238653361553 * x  +  6.18382596969604) ;
y = 16.5952205657959  -  0.0109868599101901 * x  +  0.000449098908575252 * x * x
    +  0.949107766151428 * cos(twopi / 65.1970106025516 * x  +  3.57469415664673)
    +  0.794284164905548 * cos(twopi / 43.0441710517878 * x  +  4.75899887084961)
    +  0.511595726013184 * cos(twopi / 35.3163192832428 * x  +  0.0236181281507015) ;
y = 16.6779689788818  -  0.0139918606728315 * x  +  0.000472479616291821 * x * x
    +  0.948615729808807 * cos(twopi / 64.1614927302518 * x  +  3.47451305389404)
    +  0.790576696395874 * cos(twopi / 43.0908605109407 * x  +  4.72300720214844)
    +  0.501231789588928 * cos(twopi / 35.163146391637 * x  +  6.24657678604126) ;
y = 16.7613830566406  -  0.0172608532011509 * x  +  0.000499849615152925 * x * x
    +  0.962769985198975 * cos(twopi / 62.6504139908195 * x  +  3.3491542339325)
    +  0.88291609287262 * cos(twopi / 43.0581795739345 * x  +  4.68369483947754)
    +  0.540133655071259 * cos(twopi / 35.7706484172679 * x  +  0.0910500288009644) ;
y = 16.7431106567383  -  0.0164131913334131 * x  +  0.000492125283926725 * x * x
    +  0.946361899375916 * cos(twopi / 41.9450197437358 * x  +  4.50250482559204)
    +  0.929884850978851 * cos(twopi / 63.4108127579004 * x  +  3.38510155677795)
    +  0.663641095161438 * cos(twopi / 35.8246719924236 * x  +  0.0866263881325722) ;
y = 16.7465496063232  -  0.0169562790542841 * x  +  0.000497211585752666 * x * x
    +  0.951225876808167 * cos(twopi / 63.147808236269 * x  +  3.36992502212524)
    +  0.809797048568726 * cos(twopi / 42.8652174448971 * x  +  4.63862800598145)
    +  0.510966598987579 * cos(twopi / 35.0402748945954 * x  +  6.15926599502563) ;
y = 16.6235942840576  -  0.0114988768473268 * x  +  0.000451428000815213 * x * x
    +  0.934058785438538 * cos(twopi / 65.0798104216482 * x  +  3.55813646316528)
    +  0.822907149791718 * cos(twopi / 42.7345265547166 * x  +  4.71264028549194)
    +  0.544252336025238 * cos(twopi / 35.6158612814569 * x  +  0.118446305394173) ;
y = 16.7602806091309  -  0.0173964351415634 * x  +  0.000501201080624014 * x * x
    +  0.97394859790802 * cos(twopi / 62.4490370652999 * x  +  3.32628607749939)
    +  0.801126003265381 * cos(twopi / 43.5088793352626 * x  +  4.73933458328247)
    +  0.470553696155548 * cos(twopi / 34.9519416795132 * x  +  6.13758230209351) ;

y is the predicted price, and x is the number of calendar days since 20210125. The only reason the models vary is because of different pseudorandom number sequences when they were genetically optimized.

The close prices (+ signs) and overlaid curves are:

So the models all think an uptrend has started.

 

Wow, Th1, that's quite a chemistry set you have in your basement.
Obviously you've been at this a while.
Do you have any price targets on CORN?

 

For long-term trading I wouldn't use the CORN etf chart for TA.
CORN etf needs to rise 155% to reach ATH in 2012 but the futures need to rise just 27% to reach the same highs in 2012.
Reason >>> futures contango & the etf owns 3 different futures contracts at all times.
***I've been holding the etf since september.

 

Thanks for that.
Although I used to be series 7 registered years ago, I just don't want any margin account positions (I assume futures automatically go in the margin account).
But I do need to learn more about these ETF portfolios.
***I bought half of my corn shares in August.
I got the idea from that lady at Stockcharts.com - Mish Schneider - she was posting charts of CANE ($sugar)

 

Would you mind if I used this as an example of overfitting in my next book?

GAT

 

%%
LOL Good sarcasm.
AS far as a four footed hog harVest ;
.223, .30-06 works well\ as always check local laws. My banker dad killed a FLA hog with his 12 gauge/ shotgun slug.........................................................................................