Swarm Intelligence

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Mindgamer, Mar 28, 2024.

  1. Mindgamer

    Mindgamer

    Preliminary phase of a group experiment for the determination of prices in a controlled collective environment
    SwarmIQ.jpg

    BACKGROUND
    Linear thinking represents an approach that is increasingly seen as limited when compared to more effective methodologies. One such method that stands in stark contrast is the concept of connected biomimicry, particularly through the lens of swarm intelligence. This concept posits a superior solution by leveraging the inherent collective wisdom found in nature. In the natural world, organisms are innately predisposed to collaborate effectively, exemplified by the maneuvers of birds or the cooperative hunting strategies of lions. Such collaborative behaviors underscore the principle of Swarm Intelligence. This phenomenon encapsulates how the aggregated actions of a group of simple entities can lead to outcomes that are significantly more sophisticated than the sum of individual efforts.

    The principles of Swarm Intelligence have been successfully abstracted and applied beyond the natural world, finding utility in several modern-day fields. These applications range from robotics, where it informs the design and operation of autonomous systems, to information technology, enhancing processes and optimizing scheduling. Through these diverse applications, Swarm Intelligence demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness as a model for addressing complex challenges in a collaborative manner.

    THE IDEA
    The start of a series of tests is the subject of this thread. This test series evaluates price forecasts of a small collective of participating traders for initially a handful of markets, in that each participating trader in the test collective submits his price forecasts for these markets. The forecasts are evaluated with different individual weightings and ultimately result in final fixed prices. This will be posted here in the thread immediately after the evaluation. The method is refined until a high degree of precision is achieved. The whole process is experimental with no guarantee of success. Several test series will be started. We will journal transactions (entries and exits) in this thread based on the determinations once a certain level of accuracy is reached.

    The experiment starts next tuesday. We invite you to post a simple "I'm on board" to keep the thread at the top of the thread list. This will also let us know the amount of data that we can expect to receive. It is not necessary to actively trade the specific markets. Intuitive guessing is perfectly fine!

    PROCEDURE
    (Almost) every day at 11:00PM (cet) the query of high and low price of a market or several markets for the next day is asked in this thread. Participants then send their forecasts to: swarmintelmarkets@gmail.com
    by 11:30PM (cet) at the latest. It is relevant that no forecast is made available to the other participants or posted here. Each part of the "swarm" must forecast autonomously. At 11:45PM (cet) the result will be published here. At the end of the day, it will be evaluated how the course of trading has reflected or missed the forecast.

    Email Text format example
    EURUSD H:1.0860 L:1.0735
    DAX H:18722 L:18510
    INT (or) TA
    ________________
    H=High of the day
    L=Low of the day
    INT=If you have used your intuition (incl. fundamental data knowledge)
    TA=If you have used technical analysis

    No additional text please!

    If you like this experiment, forward this thread to your friends! The higher the number of participants, the higher the expected accuracy.
     
  2. PPC

    PPC

    Is it just me, or we recently seeing more and more threads with weird academic nonsense which has nothing to do with trading???
     
    murray t turtle and EdgeHunter like this.
  3. Mindgamer

    Mindgamer

    Our first emotional hater. Always a great indicator for success! :)
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  4. Yes... but wait... You have to consider the impact of Bell's Theorem of Quantum Entanglement and the essence of synchronicity in a complex system based on the Fearful Symmetry of any specific trade even the ones that are never taken.

    Add to this a deep understanding and the ultimate need for the purification of a Trader's Nadi Channels and the alignment of his Chakras at the open of the market... all helping to magnetize a traders ultimate PnL...

    Knowing This Is Paramount For Trading Successfully... :cool:
     
    semperfrosty, PPC and Lou Friedman like this.
  5. What other kinds of haters are there?
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. schizo

    schizo

    As weird as this thread might be, I think the notion of "swarm intelligence" is already taking root among AI bots. For instance, AIs are capable of talking to one another, viz. brainstorming among themselves. I think this is truly revolutionary (or scary however you look at it) and can leapfrog us into the unknown. Hence, imagine how financial markets will be transformed once AI bots "gang up" against their less intelligent brethren.

    https://www.wired.com/story/fast-forward-the-chatbots-are-now-talking-to-each-other/
     
  7. Specterx

    Specterx

    Financial markets seem to be getting dumber, if anything - a consequence of the rise of passive funds and viral retail memes.

    It’s hard to see how recursive bullshit generators feeding each other in infinite loops will improve matters, though it may well result in even higher volatility and crowding.
     
  8. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    That would - if true - underpin momentum strategies. What works, will work even more, and market movement would become more 'primitive'.
    Wasn't it Niederhoffer a few years ago proposing a new theorie of VP, basically viewing local price/volume points as a sort of islands whereby traders could place bets while price 'moves' from island to island (so to speak)?
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. trismes

    trismes

    it's better known as the wisdom of crowds (betting number of marbles in a jar is the example that always gets trotted out; the more participants, the more accurate it becomes).
    it's already pretty well developed in finance - check out https://www.estimize.com/
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. %%
    DONT let the pic or nonsense words trick you LOL;
    swarm patterns are common in Hi fly ''v'' geese.
    Common in polar bear patterns on a dead whale LOL;
    but not as big as a herd of bull bison/ bull eLephants swarming /stampeding.
    NOT much of a market for bullspit/WMT sells bullsh*t by the 50 pound bag/ LOL true:D:D
    Wisdom of crowds may help; prefer liquid market$ mostly , Jack schwager + Proverbs wisdom helps ..................................................................................................................
    IBD use dots , not as PSAR, but for moving averages to save money on printing\not as much ink cost as solid swarm lines LOL:D:D
    Like cutting choc chip cost with whole grains!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
    #10     Mar 28, 2024
    trismes likes this.