The stock market made a 10%+ "small correction" from January 2018 to present. Most 10%+ "small corrections" take 2-5 months to make a new high, with 7 months being the maximum. The stock market topped in January 2018. Based on the probability distribution curve of this study, the stock market will probably make a new all time high somewhere from late-June to late-August 2018 https://bullmarkets.co/study-how-long-before-new-high/
I think you are defining a "small correction" after the fact. Not useful if you want to buy on the correction. Using the SPY as example, the "small 10% correction" of Mar - Apr 2000 took till June 2006 to come back to new highs. That of Oct - Nov 2007 dragged us thru the financial crisis and took till Aug 2012 to recover. So the time range can be quite substantial.
With these 12 corrections you can never calculate any reliable probability. Everybody who knows stats and probabilities knows that. You need a significant amount of data. And significant is far beyond 12. Writers make money by filling pages. That's what the author did. Fill pages.
And how often a 10% small correction became a 20% big correction? The Nasdaq already had its ATH 7 weeks after the January top and also kind of now. The Russel just had it. So...