Study: breadth suggests that the stock market's bottom is already in

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Troy Bombardia, Apr 19, 2018.

  1. murray t turtle and comagnum like this.
  2. jharmon

    jharmon

    Interesting, but flawed, analysis.

    They are comparing $NYAD versus $SPX.
    One is a stock market (and includes listings such as interest rate securities, debt securities, preferreds, hybrids etc.) and one is a market-cap-and-free-float-weighted index that spans multiple stock exchanges.

    If you compare the S&P 500 index to its actual counterpart - the S&P 500 advance-decline cumulative, you'll also find that the S&P 500 AD hasn't made a new high, so the conclusion is invalid.
     
    comagnum likes this.
  3. S2007S

    S2007S

    Really? A bottom is in? So 9 years of straight gains sending stocks up thousands of percent followed by a few weeks of losses and some volatility and the bottom is already in?

    Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
     
  4. comagnum

    comagnum

    Yea - the NYSE A/D is flawed - although the S&P 500 stocks are showing a new high on % advancing - looks good to me. Not making any predictions - just saying the breadth recently is strong.

    upload_2018-4-19_0-57-34.png

    upload_2018-4-19_1-12-21.png
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. KevinD

    KevinD

    Chart looks like it could also lead to quite a few traps. I see that last peak above the January highs occurred into the March 12th high. That led to a 250 pt pullback in S&P. It's basically made a marginal new high just like it did then.
     
  6. jharmon

    jharmon

    Umm you've got the divergence bit the wrong way around.

    When the index makes a new high but the breadth indicator/oscillator/whatever doesn't that's a proper divergence.

    You can't draw any conclusion about an index and the breadth doing the same (or not) - other than the index is in a short (or medium) term downtrend. That's just normal Dow theory.