strange strange calendar (opinion poll)

Discussion in 'Options' started by Baozi, May 7, 2019.

Should I take trades like this?

  1. You moron, of course yes, it's free lunch!

    50.0%
  2. It's a trap by the MM and you fell in it, you moron!

    50.0%
  3. Normal markets do not have this kind of behavior. Run!

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. This anomaly might persist longer than the short put, and you could be destroyed on both legs.

    50.0%
  5. far OTM(ITM) options behave funny sometimes.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. far dated options behave funny sometimes.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Baozi

    Baozi

    Ok so.. I found a situation where on the far ITM put side the short dated put(15DTE) is more expensive than a long dated one(150DTE). Same strike of course. IV is low on the short dated, and rock bottom on the long dated.

    If I look at the graph on the analyzer looks like free money, but I learned not to trust too much these quant things when multiple expiration dates are involved.

    For now I bought 1 lot just to feel the waters.. and I still have a very uneasy feeling about it.

    ET people, what's your enlightened opinion? Please cast your vote (multiple choice allowed)..
     
  2. EvanDM

    EvanDM

    Is this in a volatility symbol?
     
  3. Baozi

    Baozi

    Nope, it's on the 50ETF, China. (Or Chayna, if you prefer Trump-style.)
     
  4. EvanDM

    EvanDM

    What’s the symbol?
     
  5. Doobs789

    Doobs789

    No clue which underlying you’re referring to. But let’s say you’re right, why didn’t you sell the 15 DTE put, and buy the 150 DTE? This would result in a long calendar spread for a credit, which happens to violate the arbitrage bounds of BSM.
     
    jys78 likes this.
  6. jamesbp

    jamesbp

    Not certain it violates BSM arbitrage
    ... you can buy DITM Put calendars for a credit where carry is positive ... interest > divi

    The 'true' cost of the calendar can be determined by looking at the corresponding call calendar
    ... or dissecting out the 'time box'

    Seems weird ... but all washes out on front month expiry
     
  7. Baozi

    Baozi

    @Doobs789

    yep thats what I did for a 1lot.. seemed a bit too good to be true so I didnt jump in it full capital.. the symbol is 510050
     
  8. Doobs789

    Doobs789

    Screenshot?
     
  9. Baozi

    Baozi

    Do you understand chinese?
     
  10. jamesbp

    jamesbp

    Why don't you just give us

    - ATM option prices / strike for the respective expiries
    - Call / Put / strike prices for the calendar spread you are looking at
    - Dividends / Interest by the respective expiries
    - Excercise type
     
    #10     May 7, 2019