Stocks Analysis Using Price Action

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Gringo, Oct 29, 2013.

  1. Gringo

    Gringo

    TSLA seems to be heading below the support. I am not trading any stocks so this is more for my keeping my analysis sharp and also for some fun.

    [​IMG]

    Gringo
     
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  2. llIHeroic

    llIHeroic

    Gringo,

    Nice to see a new thread of yours! I had an enjoyable, and informative time looking at Silver with you a couple times several weeks ago.

    I'm not too focused on stocks either for the time being, but I'll put my [limited] skills to use and produce a few charts every week, to try to help you keep this thread from dying out like the last few seemed to have from lack of participation.

    Just wanted to let you know that you're not alone!
     
  3. Gringo

    Gringo

    A few times my friends ask me questions about stocks and this will make it easier for me to post it all in one place. Stocks seem to generate more enthusiasm then indexes for the mainstream crowd.

    Gringo
     
  4. Gringo

    Gringo

    I have updated the stock price with a preliminary trend channel that is downward sloping. It might not be that important, but having it here provides another perspective. As for price, if it manages to go back up into the trading range would imply a shakeout. Now, price so far hasn't gotten back, so hold your horses.

    Give yourself extra marks if you also noticed that the trading range itself isn't really a trading range. It's a hodgepodge of price action being contained in that blue box, the validity of which is suspect.

    [​IMG]

    Gringo
     
  5. llIHeroic

    llIHeroic

    Here is a longer term prospect with WTI. The beginnings of a potential long-term up-move began about two months ago, and price has just kept looking stronger and stronger.

    The conditions for direct entry aren't exactly ideal at the moment, depending on how picky you want to be, but if things keep escalating like they have been it might be a while until traders touch back down to base-line demand with a deep retracement.

    It's been my experience that one must usually take a slightly higher degree of price risk vs. information risk than normal by the time convincing evidence of a sustained movement arises.

    Perhaps it is also because of the fact that when dealing with longer-term movements, it becomes increasingly difficult to get all of the time-frames to line up for a picture perfect entry.
     
  6. llIHeroic

    llIHeroic

    Ugh, was feeling a little lazy after the work with WTI but I still wanted to get this one out as a sort of counter-part opportunity.

    It's definitely on the other side of the price vs. information risk spectrum, which I am much more comfortable with.

    See chart for details.
     
  7. Gringo

    Gringo

    Someone asked me why this stock (FIO) wasn't doing well. I hadn't even heard of it, so I opened the chart and looked at the price. The weekly tells it all. Notice the trend. Do we need to know more about financial statements after this?

    Price on daily is jagged. It's not clear enough or liquid enough for a price trader to play this very well. At least that's my opinion. In any case make up your own minds.

    [​IMG]

    Gringo
     
  8. Gringo

    Gringo

    Visa might be in a position to go down here. There are earlier signs of weakness in the XLF. Of course there's need to stay vigilant and there may be other better stocks to short but I pay attention to stocks just for fun and just picked one of the most obvious stocks.

    The 200 level is giving Visa a bit of trouble. All we know it like XLF it has trouble staying higher and is floating below possibly important levels.

    [​IMG]

    Gringo
     
  9. llIHeroic

    llIHeroic

    This one looked a little interesting.

    Edit - Just spotted a typo. Purple text should read that demand has formed, not supply.
     
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Just for grins, you may also want to look at JNK and JNJ.
     
    #10     Nov 5, 2013