If you want to trade stocks then be prepared to gamble. Stock trading is the same as gambling on which cockroach will make you the most money as it scurries along the floor. That's not to say you can't make money gambling, you can! But gambling has many risks: The majority lose, the majority lose lots of money, Some make a small amount of money, 1% of gamblers are rich from gambling. Now cockroaches come in all shapes and sizes. If you want odds in your favour, only trade the largest cockroaches, they have the best chance of consistently winning. But like gambling in its purest form, outsiders can hit the jackpot with spectacular returns, but these sorts of punts are irregular and infrequent, most outsiders lose. The most succesful gamblers have a system, a mathmatical system where they know the odds beforehand, they have data on the field of past performance of previous cockroach races and have calculated the probabilities. If a cockroach race is in action, those with a tailwind or sloping board will have the best odds, eg how strong is your sector and how tired is it? (overbought/underbought) One of the problems with gamblers though, is most believe in bs, ie if the media are clamouring about some youbeaut stock, most likely it's bs and that cockroach is buggered atm. The media will pump because (a) They are paid to pump out whatever comes into their head and expect it to garner most clicks (b) Media are biased (c) Media is deceptive (d) media just talking nonsense, don't know what they're talking about. So, many gamblers trade on instinct, emotions, excitement, fantasy dreams, delusion, Hope, clueless. Humans have a problems, we are very much Dunning Kruger, we have over estimation of our skills, we don't know what we don't know. Dunning Kruger affects nearly all novice gambler traders. It also affects uneducated gambler traders. What's the solution? Enjoy your gambling. Treat it seriously but fun like you are accountable to a good boss who is watching you. Educate yourself, never stop reading and inquiring and plotting your present or next system. Don't kick yourself when you lose, unless that is, you were behaving like an idiot. Remember, the smaller and younger the cockroach, the less chance it has of winning or surviving, but every now and again there will be a pleasant short term surprise. Cockroaches which are a little bit like pack horses and team up,(think ETF's, Indexes, sectors) are less skitterish and easier to anticipate than young loners.
Meh,about like playing poker. Even the greatest poker players in the world can never remove luck from the game. You just have to factor it in and deal with it.
Agree, luck plays a huge part. We get lucky when: Dealt a good hand. The market overall moves in our direction pulling our positions along. News come out depending on our trading position bias. The quality of our data, brokers, software, internet connections, power supply. Our health, time, convenience, infrastructures, our ability and desire to absorb information. Tips, communication, education we receive from others. How much money you had to begin with in order to stay in the game. Whether we are functional or disfunctional related to upbringing.
I think I see the problem with stock trading,,It has to do with the idea that is HAS TO BE DONE. Save that thought. Oi.
My very first trade I made a bundle of money (got lucky). I thought, "That was easy, I can do it again" and I was hooked. These last couple of years have been difficult, I'm still in the game and every now and again I pull in a bundle of money, but it's a type illusion because these wins keep me addicted. Edit: I've changed my trading style now, in theory it should work better into the future.
You're a psycho mouse from Australia, and are in time zones America cannot comprehend. But y'all do love Ozzy, which pushed up into my feed for you...Weird.
Atm I'm holding 46 positions. Majority of them are metals/mining related. As the mining sector (hopefully / depending on luck) rises, I'll try and exit near the top of the swing, and stay out as I gravitate more toward technology ETF's and other ETF's. Still diversifying but holding less positions. Our ASX mkt closed for the day I'm up $340 There were two big drags on my portfolio today: Crypto down 3.19% (holding a large position but up overall up 22% on a recent purchase). A 1/2cent penny dreadful I hold and will keep, down 17% today. (Flat overall since purchase).
Even some in the top 10 seem to boom and bust. The survivors seem to press the booms to survive the busts. Doesnt seem like an enjoyable lifestyle though.
love that -- An Inability to Recognize Lack of Skill and Mistakes Dunning suggests that deficits in skill and expertise create a two-pronged problem. First, these deficits cause people to perform poorly in the domain in which they are incompetent. Secondly, their erroneous and deficient knowledge makes them unable to recognize their mistakes.