After being up basically 13 straight yrs and up big last 3 if they thought nukes coming we’d be down 50% min .
$SPX dropped -35.4% in 23 trading days in 2018 .... without nukes. If nukes dropped this year, or any other year, markets .... prolly won't exist any longer.
"never trade for the end of the world because it only happens once". Who cares if your dead ...plus where do you plan to move your money to escape inflation?
I would say -90percent within 2 days. first day -30percent as a gap move and that will spur margin calls up the wazoo and continued forced selling. It would be so catastrophic the government (if it still exists) would have to backstop all investors and markets would rally back to -20percent on that.
How would the Circuit breakers (-20% Limit down trading halt for rest of day) effect that? It would take 10 days to lose 90% if the markets go limit down -20% every day. They would just turn the markets off i think, like the Russians have.