They just want to keep equities fueled and the entire market place filled with juice so they can keep it ramped up off cheap free money ..... It's an addiction.... And once again I will say there is absolutely zero reasons for rate cuts. Everyone keeps saying how strong corporate earnings are and how future earnings are looking stronger and stronger. Add that to historical low unemployment and strong gdp growth and declining month over month inflation.... Why the fu*k do you need rate cuts. .... Both sides of the aisle are pressuring Powell on interest rates https://finance.yahoo.com/news/both...uring-powell-on-interest-rates-080017759.html
Interesting case by Jason Shapiro https://youtube.com/shorts/im0JA4j0qMw There’s no lack of liquidity, no tightness in financial conditions, with gold / bitcoin / equities trading at all time highs. The FED isn’t going to cut rates into that. The market, by bidding up prices, is going to force the FED to raise rates.
Rates are still low historically speaking. I don't know much about government, interest and bonds. You might be right, though. I'll be happy if they cut rates. But still there's a risk that they raise.
In 80s when rates were high, government had surplus. Now in huge deficit. Current debt is 34t. Over 25% government income has to pay interest. With high interest, at some point, the government income is not enough to pay interest
Really? 8 months and counting since they last raised, how come they haven't cut yet if "they have to".
Almost nobody really believed or accepted that interest rates would stay high (and meaningfully positive in real terms) for more than a brief period. It was assumed that such high rates would lead to a quick recession and then go right back to zero, but here we are. Also, it really doesn't help that Biden is running the largest deficit ever seen outside wartime when the labor market is already extremely tight.
Exactly the market bidding up prices is going to force the fed to raise rates.... Let's be clear. The market has had an absolute insane run from end of October when the fed announced it was done raising rates. Spy has gone parabolic .... I can tell you right now. If the opposite would have happened where the markers were selling off week after week and month after month where instead of the s &p going from 4100 to 5100 plus went from 4100 to under 3000 you would have had rates down now to 3% ...trust me...the fear the fed and markets would have had if it were the opposite way of a drop of 25% would have had the fed cutting rates hand over fist but instead the markets rallied hard .....why add more incentives to an already fueled rally that seems won't stop anytime soon. The amount of fuel you would add to this market if they were to cut rates would be insane. They know it was all garbage talk about cutting rates. It was just an excuse to give more rally to the market. That was it. ..
I must be one of the "almost nobody" then? Anyway opinions change as new data is added. Hopefully anyway. As for largest deficit ever seen, that too continues to change (admin after admin) to the upside. When they had pay as you go, it was somewhat kept in check, but then Pols of either party couldn't play games. So pay as you go ... had to go.
I have to agree talk about rate cuts is insane and the only reason there is talk is to save the banks holding commercial RE and those sitting on such assets and need to roll over loans and looking at getting hit with the new rates. I hope rates stay steady. Its nice getting those rates on 3 month treasuries I stick my cash for the short put positions I have in the 3 month notes.