State of the EV industry 2024

Discussion in 'Economics' started by VicBee, Apr 1, 2025.

  1. VicBee

    VicBee

    https://evuniverse.io/p/evsales2024...rral&utm_campaign=global-ev-sales-report-2024

    I couldn't get the charts to appear on my cut/paste so I encourage you to click the link

    The EV Universe
    Global EV Sales Report H1 2024 by EV Universe
    Insights from 54 markets.
    Author Jaan Juurikas
    August 28, 2024


    Hey, Jaan here.

    You’ve probably already heard me utter this sentence before:

    Information wants to be free.

    Since nearly nobody is gathering all the EV sales info and sharing it freely out there, I find it is my duty to do so.

    The fun part is that I enjoy doing all this — from translating Thai language inside the pdf’s from their transport departments to adding up EV numbers from South Korea’s monthly 113-page pdf vehicle reports — so although it takes a lot of time (weeks), it all feels like play not work to me.

    Today, I’ve managed to track down 4,522,793 battery-electric vehicle sales across 54 markets in the first half of the year 2024. This means I’ve tracked down 98.5% of all EV sales that occurred for you!

    Not too bad for one random Estonian guy behind a computer, huh?

    This took me days upon days to put together.
    If you want to support my work, you can:

    Share this report with your friends and colleagues:
    evuniverse.io/p/evsales2024-h1

    Become an EV Universe Pro Member (they got this research last week already)

    Advertise in the EV Universe

    Drop a few electric bucks in this high-voltage Tip Jar ⚡️.

    Now, come and dig in with me, it’ll be fun I promise.

    RESOURCES
    Insights are all below, and in the same article online.

    Charts in higher quality can be downloaded on Google Drive here. Please link to our website if you use them.

    Charts on socials for resharing are popping up on my X account and on my LinkedIn account feed as I send you this.

    Numbers are all in this Google spreadsheet. All the core sources are linked to in the Column U. It’s okay to share all this with your friends.

    To clarify, my research has:

    Included:

    Only battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). This is what we call “EV” here.

    Only new 4-wheeled light-duty vehicles. That’s passenger cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and light vans.

    Excluded:

    Nothing here with a combustion engine. No plug-in hybrids here. (I don’t do PHEVs, here’s why).

    No medium- and heavy-duty vehicles here, and also no 2- and 3-wheelers

    Ready?

    Global numbers you need to know:
    4,590,947 battery-electric vehicles were sold in the world in the first half of 2024 (H1 2024).

    12.4% is how much EV sales grew globally in the first half of 2024, compared to H1 2023.

    36 markets saw EV sales grow compared to the first half of last year, yet
    16 markets saw a decline.

    12% is the market share these 4.59M EVs took in total light-duty vehicles sold in the world. In other words,

    Every 9th (well really every 8.33th) vehicle sold in the world was fully electric.

    We know the total BEV sales number and verified the Chinese sales numbers thanks to our friend José Pontes from EV-Volumes. That’s why I know we’ve now mapped out 98.5% of all sales. Thank you, José! If anyone needs to access their detailed data, let me know and I’ll introduce you.

    Historical EV sales growth:
    2010 to H1 2024 globally
    In 2023, 10,311,976 EVs were sold globally, and EVs took up 11.45% of the overall car sales. Per the current trend, we will surpass that, especially considering the latter part of the year is usually with higher sales.

    See our full 2023 analysis across 57 countries here, if you missed it.
    And here’s the updated chart to see where we’re at today:


    Who is leading the EV sales in H1 2024?
    Ok, so let’s start breaking the data down.
    The 4.59M EVs were divided into the markets like this:


    54.6% sold in China; every 4th car sold was an EV.
    20.8% in Europe; every 7th car sold was an EV.
    13.1% in the US; every 14.5th car sold was an EV.
    11.5% in Rest of World; no data for overall sales yet to calculate market share.

    China “lost” -6.1% in the world’s EV market share, while Europe gained 1.2%, US 1.6% and Rest of World 3.3%.

    This does seem to confirm what we talked about early this year — the ‘rest of the world’ will start to outpace China, Europe, and US in EV growth this year. We’ll see it further below with the largest EV growth regions as well.

    The reasons are both the RoW countries’ own evolving landscape, the increasing export of Chinese EVs, and from now on, another catalyst will be the protectionist measures of EU and US. A perfect storm? I think so.

    As we know, the EV future is already here. It is just unevenly distributed and varies also through time.

    Let’s look at the:

    Ten largest EV markets in the world in H1 2024

    First up, China

    well, obviously.

    The momentum in China keeps going, and last month was the first ever when NEVs (BEVs + PHEVs together) managed to grab a 51.1% market share in July. While the average BEV market share for the first half of this year came to 25%, June ended up at 28%.

    I believe we might reach the point of every third car sale being battery-electric this year, although note that we’ve also recently seen plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles start growing. Keeping an eye on it.

    The best-selling EVs in China in H1 2024 show us a familiar face up top, with just BYD switching places among… its own vehicles.

    Tesla Model Y 210,817

    BYD Seagull 172,017

    BYD Yuan Plus 118,303

    Note that I don’t include BYD’s plug-in hybrids anywhere in this report. For the full last year, the top three were Model Y, then BYD Yuan Plus, then BYD Dolphin.

    Europe, here meant as whole of Europe (UK+EFTA+EU) not just the European Union despite the emoji there, has basically been stagnant for the first part of the year.

    But there’s a twist. Here’s an interesting dynamic for you that isn’t well visible elsewhere — EV sales in Germany, Europe’s largest car market that made up 21.4% of its sales this year, are down rather strong since the sudden cut of subsidies in December.

    EV sales of Germany 184,125 are down -16.4% compared to first half of 2023, and EVs have lost 3.26% in market share, now at 12.5%.

    Of course, the media mostly tells you of a much larger drop, because they want to compare it with the peak sales of latter half of 2023, not compare the H1 to H1. We are yet to see what the German market brings us in

    But since European EV sales in general are stagnant, this means the rest of the countries are carrying Europe. Let’s see:

    European EV sales with Germany: 954,094 EVs, +1.60% growth year-over-year,
    13.87% market share (down -0.38%).
    European EV sales without Germany: 769,969 EVs, +7.17% growth and 14.24% market share (up 0.01%).


    Europe’s best-selling EVs in H1 2024 were once again dominated by Tesla:

    Tesla Model Y: 102,730

    Tesla Model 3: 60,403

    Volvo EX30: 39,652

    So what we see here is Tesla MY and M3 on the same places as for full 2023, but the third place was switched out from VW ID.4. The ID.4 itself now rests in 8th place among BEVs.

    T&E believes that Europe’s EV market is currently in between two growth phases, due to the stop-and-go design of the EU car CO2 targets (set in 5-year increments), which makes them time their EV sales and models to align with the next EU target (in 2025). This should shift the focus to affordable mass-market EVs.

    United States saw 599,694 EVs registered in the first half of 2024, growing 7.4% YoY and achieving a 7.5% market share (the latter I got from Experian Automotive, the rest is Kelley Blue Book stats).

    Last year, the US ended up growing 62.1% over 2022, and reached a 7.67% market share, so we’re seeing a slowing down in the growth rate (not overall sales), and ever so slightly in the market share here.

    With the US we always have to bring out California. It now made up 32.2% of all EV sales in the US in H1 2024. That’s actually up from 31% for the whole year of 2023. 193,019 EVs were sold there, growing just 1.0% from last year (so the rest of the US grew faster at 7.4%), and reaching a 21.40% market share. In other words,

    Every 5th (well, 4.67th) car sold in California has been an EV in 2024.

    In the US the best-selling EVs in H1 2024 were:

    Tesla Model Y: 198,030

    Tesla Model 3: 73,552

    Ford Mustang Mach-E 22,234
    (last year, Chevy Bolt took the #3 spot, now it’s 18th!)

    The cool part about California is that the Tesla Model Y is the best-selling car of any fuel type there with 69,810 sales, beating the Toyota RAV4 in the second place with 36,160 sales by almost double.

    So, Tesla’s continuing global dominance has been quite clear also in 2024, staying in exactly the same spots as in 2023:


    As for the rest of the top 10 EV markets,

    United Kindom keeps its modest growth rate quite steady, growing 9.2% to 167,096 EV sales in the first half of 2024, reaching a 16.60% market share (up 0.49% in market share).

    To compare, in whole of 2023 the country saw 17.8% growth and 16.54% market share. So the talks of EV declining here would definitely not apply, perhaps it’s rather stagnant instead.

    France EV sales grew 14.9% in the first half of 2024, to 158,402 sales and a 17.31% market share, increasing the EV market share by 1.81% from the same time last year. Now in the under-100k-sales pile, we’ve got:

    South Korea, which was the second large EV country to decrease in EV sales in H1 2024 compared to the H1 2023, -15.3% to 66,518 EV sales. The EV market share dropped too, by 2%, to 8.30% of all sales.

    The country was already stagnant in EV sales in 2023, with only 0.9% growth from 2022. The recent one battery fire coverage that went ultra-wide certainly won’t help the EV image for this year.

    Belgium can’t stop won’t stop, growing 47.8% in the first half of 2024, to 64,404 EV sales and a 24.45% market share. That’s a whopping 8% increase in market share! Belgium keeps building on its success last year when it grew 148% over 2022, and looks to be joining the Scandinavian markets in the EV life — every 4th car sold is now fully electric.

    The Netherlands however has slowed down its pace, growing 4.1% in first half of 2024 compared to the H1 2023, to 60,338 EV sales. In full 2023, it grew 55.6%.

    Significant here is that Netherlands has now reached 31.16% market share, growing 2.28% in market share from the same time last year (which means the auto market itself being down also contributes to the smaller growth rate.) Almost every 3rd car sold in is an EV!

    Done with the top 10 in size, let’s look at the best performing in growth.

    Best in EV growth — countries that more than doubled their BEV sales in H1 2024

    Here it is, the “rest of the world”, outpacing Europe, US and China as promised. Now, some of these markets just start with a low base which makes it easier to reach high YoY’s, but you still got to love the momentum.

    There were 16 countries that did that for the full year of 2023, and 7 in the first half of this year. I’d expect some more to get their growth gear in through the latter part of this year too.

    Brazil is the fastest-growing EV market in the world, with 726.13% more EV sales in the first half of 2024 over first half of 2023. 31,204 EV sales have increased the EV market share in overall sales to 2.90%.

    Note that the country ended 2022 with just 8,460 EV sales, then jumped 128.3% in 2023 to 19,310 sales, and now, in the first half of the year, has already surpassed that by 1.6x.

    Brazil is quite unique in its market dynamics as well. You see, Brazil’s EV sales are dominated by BYD, just see the top three EV models in H1 2024:

    BYD Dolphin (& Mini): 18,667

    GWM Ora 03: 3,687

    BYD Seal: 2,196

    Kind of looks like the whole EV revolution in the country can be ‘blamed’ on one company. It’s wild how one EV maker can jumpstart a country’s path to EV future. And BYD’s moat is just about to get even bigger in Brazil:

    Brazil launched an increase in EV import tariffs on July 1st, raising them from 10% to 18% as of January 1st, planning to reach 35% by July 2026. BYD, however has already started construction of its manufacturing complex in the country which should spit out 150k EVs/year starting in late 2024.

    Turkey — 35,600 EVs were sold in Turkey in the first half of 2024, up 233.1% year-over-year. Note that the country is in full EV speed ahead, as it grew 734.3% in 2023. The growth is mostly attributed to Turkey launching its own EV brand, Togg. Togg T10X sold 9,000+ units in the first half of 2024, followed by Tesla Model Y with 3,000 units and KGM Torres (formerly SsangYong). The country has now reached a 7.7% EV market share

    [updated!] Singapore: 6,019 EVs were sold in the first half of 2024, growing 218.13% (!) from the same time last year. The EV market share of all cars sold jumped from 18.10% to 32.40%!

    [updated!] Malaysia sales I’ve updated, now accessing the gov data down to each sale, we’ve got 10,663 EVs sold in the first half of the year, and the EV sales grew 141.8% and reached a 2.60% market share (up from 1.15% the year earlier).

    Malta is quite unique here in Europe. The country, an archipelago in the central Mediterranean between Sicily and the North African coast, showed just 26.8% growth last year, but now shot up 129.9% in the first half of the year, to 1,331 sales (already more than the 1,248 EVs sold in 2023).

    With it, the country recorded the largest jump in market share in H1 2024: from 14.6% to 30.05%! Nearly every third car sold there is now an EV. Meanwhile, the other island country in the Mediterranean, Cyprus, grew 61% to 4,96 EVs and 5.64% market share.

    Mexico also more than doubled its EV sales, growing 129.6% in H1 2024 to 12,186 EV sales. Its EV market share is now 1.72%. Mexico just keeps going, as it also grew 168% for the full year of 2023. Since Giga Mexico is pushed into the future, possibly far, I believe the near future of this market will be determined by the Chinese EV maker coming to the country.

    Chile jumped 125.6% in H1 2024 with 1,735 sales, and has now reached an 1.22% market share. Seems Chile is picking up speed, as for the whole year of 2023 it grew only 22.6%, and it has now already surpassed the 1,588 sales of 2023. BYD is the largest with 281 sales, Tesla with its fresh country presence comes in with 257 and Volvo with 122 EV sales.

    Indonesia also managed to double its EV sales, growing 104.3% in H1 2024 to 11,943 EV sales and 3.90% in market share. This is quite a step after growing 65.2% in 2023, and EVs had but a 2.19% market share then.

    Here’s another, perhaps the best view to map out the winning countries — by their EV market share.

    Best in EV adoption — the countries with over 20% EV market share:

    I’m happy to report that this list has increased by two countries / regions, as we had 10 of the countries over 20% EV sales for the full 2023.

    In other words, these 12 markets had more than every 5th car sold fully electric!

    Norway. Need I say more? Norway EV sales have decreased year over year by 5.9% to 52,018 EV sales in H1 2024 (that’s what the omg headlines were about).

    However, the EV market share in Norway in H1 2024 actually grew by 1.85%, 83.07% → 84.92% from the first half of last year (somehow not in the headlines, or even in the articles, I wonder why).

    We have to keep in mind that with Norway, any contraction of the overall auto market now by default means a contraction in the EV sales - they just barely sell anything else.

    Next up is one we didn’t have data on last year but I somehow found their national database for this year:

    [updated!] Hong Kong saw 20,097 EV sales, which shows a 51.1% growth year-over-year and, get this, a 83.61% EV market share! The overall EV fleet by end of May was 93 268 private EVs, making up 14.68% of all cars on the road.

    Huge shoutout to the great work from our reader John Baker in helping me find about 6 of the countries I was missing. Thank you!

    Denmark is doing exactly what I told you in our 2023 overview: it’s set up for a leap towards 50% EV adoption. It doubled it’s EV sales in 2023 and now, check this out: Denmark increases EV market share by 14.10% in the first half of 2024, reaching 45.11%, with 38,961 EV sales.

    Danish EV sales grew 49% in H1 2024 compared to the H1 2023, which isn’t at all so easy when you’re already playing at such a high market share. This puts Denmark in the second spot after Malta in terms of EV market share change - but it did it at ~30x the sales numbers.

    Sweden however experienced somewhat of a drawback after a strong 2023, now decreasing, down -19.9% to 41,998 EV sales in H1 2024. Finland also dropped in the EV market share, by -5.54% to 31.75%.

    Definitely a drawback after a large jump in market share in 2023 (33%→38.72%), but it currently remains still the world’s 4th country in terms of EV adoption, and nearly every third car sold is an EV. Sweden did not complete the “leap” I thought it would do together with Denmark. Perhaps in the latter part of the year?

    Netherlands we already covered, jumping to 5th spot in EV adoption with 31.16% EV market share, and Malta next to it too.

    [updated!] Macao, which we’re reporting on for the first time like Taiwan, saw 1,814 EVs sold in the first half of 2024, up 18.2% from last year and EVs took a very notable 30.52% market share.

    Finland suffered a similar fate to its neighbor Sweden, with the EV sales shrinking by -30.9% in H1 2024, reaching 10,569 EV sales and a 26.99% market share.

    The market share declined by -5.65%* this year compared to the same time last year. Finland did a remarkable jump in EV adoption last year, doubling it’s EV sales and jumping from 17.8%→33.75% in EV market share.

    * btw I know that I’m basically using double negative with these here, but I keep the minus sign there for easier readibility on purpose, for those who skim the text through.

    Luxembourg keeps going, grows 21.8% to 6,437 EVs in H1 2024 and achieves quite the jump in market share: 19.94% → 25.66%!

    Israel grew 36.1% year-over-year in H1 2024 to 39,236 EV sales, with a great jump in market share too: 16.54% → 25.30%! Every fourth car sold in the country is now fully electric. BYD; MG Motor and Tesla take the top three in the country.

    We also covered the story of the three countries/regions that also fit into the >20% EV adoption club: China, Belgium, and California. However, did you notice anything missing today?

    Iceland has fallen out of the >20% club in a rather remarkable fashion. Having reached a 38.19% EV market share in first half of 2023 and even a 50.06% market share for the full 2023, the EV sales now fell off a cliff reaching “just” 15.04% in market share for H1 2024.

    Now, note that Iceland’s auto market is rather small, which means it sold just 956 EVs so far this year, but it did experience the second-largest drop in EV sales so far this year with -75.6%. First in that scale? We’ll get to that. I guess ICEland doesn’t have to change it’s name to EVland just yet.

    The reason for Iceland’s EV sales crash? One of it might be the kilometer-rate charge imposed on EVs at the turn of the year.

    Switzerland also fit in the >20% club last year but after EV sales decreasing -7.7% to 21,387 in H1 2024, the market share has dropped to 17.64% (-1.07% compared to H1 2023).

    The ‘doing good’ in EV adoption — another 12 countries have crossed the 10% adoption mark

    Adding the countries with between 10% and 20% EV market share range, we had a total of 24 (!) countries or regions that had over 10% of their sales fully electric in H1 2024. That’s the same as for the full year of 2023 — which also tells us that all in all, things aren’t going that bad for EV adoption.

    All these are countries where at least every 10th car is fully electric.

    We already covered half of them, like Switzerland, France, UK, Iceland, Europe in general, and Germany. Let’s take a look at the others:

    Portugal goes at a solid pace of +12.5% growth and 19,214 in the first half of 2024, growing its market share by 1%, to 16.50%. Last year, it doubled its sales and reached 18.2% market share, so we’ll be watching for th
     
    PennySnatch likes this.
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Seriously Vic you can do better - more like: EV Industry Mid Year 2024!

    Or IOW soon 8 months stale, in an eva eva ever-changing world sometimes by the minute.
     
  3. VicBee

    VicBee

    Dude, you're like the chihuahua that never stops barking.
    That report is the most comprehensive of the EV industry bar none. Yes, it's mid year to mid year at a time of dramatic events since but it's still solid data.
     
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Admit it, its old snooze.

    You're the fan boy always talking about all the new fangled thingies Tesla is coming out with annnnnnyday now. Not what has come out in the past.

    Bats and bots. I get it, China has caught up, maybe even passed Elon so just like him you are redirecting. Ok.
     
  5. VicBee

    VicBee

    One thing I found interesting is that in 2024 the media didn't stop talking about how demand for EVs was plummeting.... And it wasn't.

    Oh, and Tesla Y was the world's best selling car in 2023 and 2024.
     
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    And now currently, which is all that really matters unless one is into living in the past:-

    (CNBC)

    Tesla disappoints, Chinese competitors sustain sales
    Tesla on Wednesday reported 336,681 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a 13% decline from a year ago, and is below the 360,000 and 370,000 deliveries expected by investors, according to StreetAccount. In China, electric carmakers Xiaomi, Xpeng and Leapmotor each delivered nearly 30,000 or more cars in March, roughly two times that of their fellow startup competitors. BYD remains the market leader in China by far.
     
  7. VicBee

    VicBee

    With the (justified) frenzy against Musk and repercussions on Tesla... Did you expect otherwise? The only good news for Tesla is its China sales are growing.
     
  8. VicBee

    VicBee