Just as we peaked for several months and started selling "some" portions of swing trades until mostly out, starting to pick up the best names now. Not going crazy just getting "some". Those with the best displacements come first. Will continue as the market gives. What struck me was the low volume on some of the best names. Also my sense is a buy in late Jan (not me) with the expectation of a full run back up, has had its premise busted with the close at a new closing low today. Some now, some later as the market gives. Eventually will be fully or over allocated, but need to see it as it happens. Allocation management to create risk management...
Vix above 40 and I will buying. Will happen by tomorrow or Wednesday if selling continues I added some short oil play today. NRGD just a small trade though. Will add tech name etfs like BULZ and FNGG in the next day or 2 as well to catch the 3% bounce higher after the vix jumps to 40. Hey maybe it doesn't jump to 40 and drops back below 25 by end of March.
I'm not getting long anything until we get some resolution in Ukraine.Whether that means Zelenskyy exiled,or whatever. And oil comes back down to a "reasonable" level.
I bought today oil and commodity stocks and ETFs. Waiting on the US cutting off oil supplied by Russia. I figure it would spike oil prices by a lot. Commodities are already going up.
Lots of MoMo trades in the commodities. (Smallfil) Here was a reasonable place to cover some of the short futures and covert to options. (Handle123) NOT calling any bottoms, just trading what the market is giving. The post was NOT about being monolithic in calling bottoms, or waiting for the ALL clear and then "going in". It was about allocation as a way to manage risk. "Being comfortable with uncertainty in a measured way". "Some" is the key word. Just going for the high probability short term trades with ES, NQ like Handle123 mentions , and accumulating reasonable positions for long term for quality stocks that are being dragged down. No predictions here.
SPX bottom still basically held. TSX ( Canada ) actually only 2% from ATH still. Given the recent news, I'd say markets have held up really well. Selective buying and paying attention to value will do really well this year. It's a mixed market; I'm killing it all long positions in 2022. I've always been value focused and at this point it's what works.
Trades am putting on are for my long term commodities account. The difference between now and mid 1991 when I completed backtesting is huge with learning risk management. My futures winning percentages are under 5% but cause I know I will lose often, I use so many hedges, they take care of the loses and provide overall profits. The kicker, automation can find patterns when retracements are happening and hedge the retracement. Everyone thinks hedges are only same instruments options, but they can be ETFs or their options or deferred future contracts. System doesn't nail all of them, but system is seeking 75% of range of past 9 years. So where many doing short term trades, they are add ONS for overall position. Sometimes by time price enters zone to reverse, system can have over dozen added positions, lots of rollovers though. My favorite method, no thinking of what to do.