4800 = short term pivot point for me (could get there on Monday)... it's the high from 2022... if tested and it holds, would be a "bull pivot" (was resistance in 2022, if now support?) Not financial advice FWIW....
In my opinion, one of the issues with using charts, past order flow to predict future order flow, does not take into account when there is a material change in the broad market or for an individual stock. Take for example any small cap stock trading at $3.00 with a $1 range for a year. Then you wake up one day and they have material unexpected news and the stock is trading at $15.00. To me, any chart patterns in the past was for another company and this should now be treated like an IPO. When it comes to the broad market, and there is a material external change, it can be the same. Large tax cuts, large tax increases, pandemics, trade disputes, large tariffs etc. These can all cause a material uncertainly and a repricing of expected future sales, earnings and GDP. The old support levels might no longer be "support", as they were support for the old market, not this one. I have been in the business since 1981. The market and companies hate uncertainty. We and they can adapt to small changes in regulations, taxes and cross border trade, but when you can't plan, you shut down future investments and hiring.
True... support/resistance levels for prior market/swing don't apply to this one. Except there are lots of TA guys like me who will "take a shot" at fading significant tops/bottoms from a prior time? Which is why I mentioned this one. If you want, you can take a look at the NYA from 2000 to present. There were half-dozen or so major bull pivots or match low trades with prior years. IMV if something happens twice, could be a coincidence... if 3x or more, it's a "thing".
mean reversion trades predicate on trenedline. price may jump up or down, but generally human would like to price left and right, then everyone meets in the middle, which mathematically is a trendline.
it is important but let's see 4965 first on monday, wall of worries bets down further. we will have a bear market and a recession under this guy.
The bear market has already touched down in most stocks being of 20 to 40% from highs, and no need to wait for confirmation on a recession from the talking heads, the recession is actually here right now. Next thing to worry about is high inflation .. Just as it was coming down, now it's coming back up, the only thing I see keeping inflation down is the highest unemployment thats coming with a huge slow down in consumer spending. Unemployment is going to skyrocket, probably see 6% unemployment by early 2026 and gdp near 0%!