Soros on Trend Following

I love this paragraph which comes from "Soros on Soros" book. Timeless (so don't give me any crap about this book being from the 90's ).

 

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That's a good one. '' Most of the time , a trend follower;..... very cautious on going against the herd[ lest he]get trampled on '' LOL

 

Have you read the reflexivity book too? That's pretty good (very dense reading, though).

 

I often look at Soros books like a piece of art that people stare at and just trying to find it's beauty because they know it's Soros.

Let's try to adopt the "I think the markers are always wrong" and let's see how far we go with that.
He is ONE is a Million understanding macroeconomics beyond most economist PhDs. Brilliant.

 

My take away from such a reaching statement is.....can YOU define the inflection points ? And if so have the vehicle, capital and balls to act on it ? Easier said than done.

 

I did and I think reflexivity theory is spot on. Yes, not an easy read but nothing compares to Taleb ... Like sluicing for gold

 

Agreed. I may not be able to, but at the least, I should understand what it means to be a contrarian ... I think too many people get this wrong and get burnt badly. Just a lot to think about no matter what style of trading you deploy.

 

The herd is always wrong at the turn, but they are right up to that point (TA can help you with identifying.)

Trend following is a correct strategy. IOW... it rarely pays to be a contrarian but sometimes pays off big.

 

So, in summary, he's a trend follower who calls and acts on turns better than most other people. Impressive, to be sure, but not especially replicable by the rest of us.

 

Why not!? As below: watch for telltale signs ... disengage ... probe. Just convert these steps into specific actions and you have a system on any timeframe.



IMHO, what separates people like Soros from many others is not necessarily brilliance in reading/predicting the market, but brilliance in implementing their ideas and having the guts to press the high conviction trades while keeping the risk in check. I read (if I remember correctly) that in the famous British Pound trade he only had insignificant amount (like 2%) of his portfolio at risk.