AS PROMISED I HAVE RETURNED! It's probably been a year since I left you all promising not to return until I was again a millionaire. In that time period I have refined my stock picking skills-- switched to a vaporizer- and I come before you as part of an elite class of traders and or stock investors. Of course a million dollars isn't what it once was, and life's costs are very high. It's for that reason I drive old cars and the kid goes to public school and I keep my luxuries to a weekend/ summer house in Ct. And my Mother died. Just about a year ago my mother died of an old evil breast cancer that returned and I had a most difficult period of dealing with her not dealing with the situation. This event I admit unglued me and I went a little bit off the mental track. Little bit crazy. >>> So THAT's where I've been. Now the whole look of Elite Trader is different-- it's hues of blue, I remember black and brown and green. >>> The Market is at an interesting point in time. Everything is adjusting to the new reality of 2-3% gdp growth with less people working. Where the economists have it wrong is they look at worker productivity and say oh it's not increasing anymore that's bad for the outlook of the unemployed when actually the opposite is true. Worker Productivity/ the use of more robots and software has resulted in fewer job hiring and NO wage growth for those that are left working. >>> For stock earnings this has been a good time. Wage Inflation or just wages they have dropped off a chart to the lower right like a tricky screwball. These companies are printing money and hoarding it. President Obama has recently tinkered here, trying to raise the minimum wage and adjust the over time rule. The over time rule says something like if your employee makes $500-$700 plus a week you don't have to offer and pay for over time at an higher salary rate. It's a real rip off for someone right at the poverty line that could be due overtime but doesn't get it. This a huge transitional time for America, creating this new out of work class and feeding them while getting students fresh out of college to work for free for a few years as an Intern before not giving them a job and as every old guy and gal in a nice job situation decides to stay on ten years longer because they don't have the funds to retire on. It's a workforce Ponzi scheme unfolding in real time. . Only so many jobs. In some ways it feels like it all is going to end badly- with violence. That may be ten years away or more but rent prices cannot keep going up as folks income growth goes down. Computers have brought us in every way to where we are now. One wonders what a life without computers would be like -- I actually remember, I'm old enough -- it was just fine. All this improvement, all this lightening quick speed just to jerk off. A magazine worked just as well back in the 70's & 80's. The Internet has been a blessing of course and computers have helped us advance in so many ways especially investing! but I'm only half joking because all this productivity has led to an underemployed America and to an egg head world of teenage gamers who go off half cocked and open up with a machine gun at some high school. I see a canary in the coal mine for our whole society with these Columbine copy cats and with these out of work, angry, Gothic ,quick thumbed first person killers. The fact that the last guy uploaded to Twitter the moment before he went out and killed doesn't surprise it just saddens. I think he took a ' selfie ' too. --> Alright let's talk about some stocks for a new portfolio: Let's start with THESE- Glu Mobile.- Games for smartphones and tablets. GLUU $5.50-- I purchased this stock yesterday basically because of the upcoming Candy Crush Ipo. GLUU with a broader platform and on the cusp of making good money would appear to be a very attractive take out candidate now for someone. Manitowoc- Industrial play crane maker. MTW $ 31.45- I'm looking at this name today I am impressed with the price strength and this name appears to want to be a new leader. They have nice exposure to oil and gas and wind in various divisions and recently displayed some new crane technology that could seriously boost sales in that division. The orders and feedback from the CON EXPO has been reportedly very strong. This company is also refinancing debt. Trip Advisor- TRIP $106 -- I feel like I've been watching this stock since $75. TRIP has had every chance to trip up and they haven't they have switched to a new way of recording ads and a new business model, away from per click and more to buy everything in one stroke booking the hotel on TRIP rather than jumping around. I see TA as a leader but have not got the guts to pay up for it just yet. GT Tech- GTAT $ 17.00 -- GT has had a great run and I've been in it and sold and now I'm considering the ole' double dip! The Gt story unfortunately or fortunately is tied into Apple now and their screen for their new phone -will it be Sapphire the Gt product? Bets are being placed on the Ipad as well I am slightly cautious of all of this however a recent large contract just shows that GT is NOT a one trick pony . Rosetta Genomics- ROSG $ 6.10 -- In an update to it's shareholders, this company promises a new diagnostic test for various cancers and other ailments yearly based on their Micro-RNA tools. This appears to be the future of medicine lots of tests so they can treat you for stuff before you get it. I'm a good bio investor and bios have helped me regain my portfolio high they have run hard so one has to be very careful in these late innings ROSG seems like untapped potential. Rosetta is currently marketing four cancer diagnostics: The Cancer Origin Test, The Lung Cancer Test, The Kidney Cancer Test, and The Mesothelioma Test. That's just a lot of test in some big areas... I'm looking hard at this name today. ok it's 9:15 talk to you all later. ~stoney
Just 1 today folks right at the close we'll see what tomorrow brings obvious very bad market conditions right now. All day ROSG had no sellers does that mean it has buyers? Not for sure but at least it says whoever holds this stock would prefer to sell something else right now and perhaps that's the best we can hope for. MTW flirted with being positive today. It has an incredible up slope chart-- this baby really can move and is not a boring crane stock. Although it is. I may want to buy this larger so I held off my 300 shares that i can afford at the moment online and may phone the order in tomorrow to my larger account. Seems like a stable investment with some oomph. AMZN has really looked strong lately-- it's hard not to notice and of course they control everything. I use Amazon and I'm backwards with these groovy internet co's AMZN is also a $300 stock tough to buy, I may tomorrow, I'm thinking about it, certainly in my sons custodial account I may hide it. UBNT sets up nice. It has 20% short and was up near all day on no news! Talk about strong, It came back to break even but certainly seems like a balloon being held beneath water. This would be a trade for $6 it may set up next week. I doubt folks will want to hold stocks over the weekend if they can at all avoid it with Putin all riled up like a Turkey the day before Thanksgiving. GTAT.... This is going to be interesting tomorrow they have a corporate update and I'm sure if they do have Apple news they will not be able to talk about it so it may sell off tomorrow-- yet management astutely released a new product today to confuse people a bit... This could go either way but I'm in the camp that the Earnings Potential with this name is near unrivaled at the moment in the tech space. $24 is not an unrealistic target for this name that has already had a nice run--- the earnings for the next two years though... they're worth looking into. I know the market is exploding and it's tough to focus on any good ideas. The market is down because of Germany because of Russia because of China... see a pattern here? Perhaps not until the market is worried about the United States will we truly fall. ~stoney
Day2. Good morning everyone. We begin today looking hard at MTW, the crane Co. This should be a larger position just how large I'm playing with this morning. Along with a similar name HEES these two crane aerial construction plays with ties into the oil and gas industry are on fire. Looking at a 1 year chart you can see them both obliterating the sector and the market in general with HEES having the better run but keep shortening the time frame while comparing the two charts and you will see a switch over with MTW taking the lead. Just since Jan MTW is Up 50%! Something is happening here investors! #1 Idea Today is Manitowoc. MTW-$31.50 Rest Of Today's Watch list--> QUIK // GTAT // UBNT // CCJ // TRIP // AIG- 6 names so far. ET PORTFOLIO: (a) Rosetta Genomics
THINGS ARE MOVING QUICK FOLKS... GTAT added to ET Portfolio***** Lets just call it $ 16.30 --->>>> also GLUU This was purchased two days ago $5.30 ---->>> Later today MTW! ~si PS Love MOBI but already own it with a gain and don't want to front run!!!
I guess all the traders who sold out their portfolios because of the Russia situation will sit back now and watch this week unfold. There was a day trader of futures on the cnbc and he panicked last week-- that's a good sign. He's not making money anymore boo hoo, stocks are acting different blah blah. If there is a top coming in this market the most important indicator just might be my reappearance here at Elite Trader. -- St Patrick's Rally-- We have started to build our ET Portfolio last week with the purchases of ROSG- GTAT- GLUU- Now we need some bulk for the account and we have our Crane maker waiting on tap-- MTW. Why is Mantitowoc so attractive right now-? Well I have been trying to get exposure in Europe I know it sounds funny but when I sat down with my adviser and mapped out the year-- the end result I wanted was a rotation into stocks that benefit from Europe. I don't know if you have ever tried to buy European in your account it's incredibly difficult. You've got these long lunches over there, entire months in the summer being taken off in Franc and the hard working Germans-- picking a stock is like throwing a dart. Usually you wind up with the meds... some big pharma play. MTW- Crane division is a nice way to play Europe on the mend. - As a global company, Manitowoc derived 56% of its total revenue from overseas sales. Europe is Manitowoc's largest overseas market with Europe accounting for about 22% of Manitowoc's total sales. The Manitowoc Company, Inc. provides crawler cranes, tower cranes, and mobile cranes for the heavy construction industry and also manufactures commercial foodservice equipment. Its 'Crane' segment accounted for 62% of sales in 2013 while 'Foodservice' made up the other 38%. There was a recent Crane Expo! You missed it-- it must have been a heavy equipment expo and Manitowoc displayed it's wares.-10 new products. The one that got the most attention was described by the CEO-- âOverall, Manitowoc had high expectations prior to ConExpo, and they were exceeded,â remarked Glen E. Tellock, Manitowocâs chairman and chief executive officer. âThose that attended the show can certainly attest that the highlight of Manitowocâs exhibit was our new Variable Position Counterweight (VPC) crawler crane technology. The financial benefit of these crawler orders, as well as show orders for various Potain tower cranes and Grove mobile cranes, will positively affect 2015 financial results.â --> This VPC appears to be a GAME CHANGER in the exciting world of cranes. If you live in a big city like NY all you see on the horizon is cranes, cranes jacked up on cranes and more cranes. While the company will not disclose its order figures until its first-quarter-earnings release, industry reports are providing some insight into how things went at the ConExpo.--> Engineering News-Record reports Manitowoc having sold 10 of its 300-ton MLC300 crane and 50 crawlers that use its next-generation variable position counterweight, or VPC technology. Manitowoc is betting big on the technology, with industry experts even calling it a game changer for the company. Manitowoc's crane orders jumped 57% sequentially and 30% year over year during its last quarter. The company hasn't seen such strong order intake since the recession. >> 3 Other Ideas For Today-- I don't have many at the moment. a) AIG. In reseraching an air lease play that AIG had a part in.. they sold their leasing unit I came away admiring the deal that AIG pulled off. No it's not enough to move the needle at that huge company and yes the CEO just got a $6 mil bonus and certainly this would appear to be the type of tainted stock you would want to stay away from... Still AIG has been so very range bound... I think it could move and move quickly and get some fans along the way. I believe this stock is undervalued but I'm not sure I want to throw my small amount of shareholder heft into the process just yet. b) GWPH. This is a bio that is providing a pipeline update today. These guys use the not trippy side of marijuana to make some interesting drugs. c) VMW- VM Ware the emc spin off is looking good. Several recent price targets came out in the $120range to $130. The stk just crossed $100.00 The stk has just made a strong move from $96-$106 and they have purchased a company along the way. It all looks like a market leader potential to me. - 07:37 EDT VMW VMware checks indicate strong 2014, says FBR Capital FBR Capital said its recent channel checks on VMware indicate good demand in the virtualization space. FBR believes the company is poised for a strong 2014 and raised its price target for shares to $120 from $115. It maintains an Outperform rating on VMware. - March 10, 2014 06:37 EDT VMW VMware price target raised to $130 from $110 at Credit Suisse - March 5, 2014 07:19 EDT VMW VMware poised to benefit from shift to virtual applications, says Oppenheimer >>> MTW // VMW // GWPH // AIG >>> MOBI This is one other name I wanted to tell you about due to the fact that i already own it with a gain I have not put it into the ET portfolio but that doesn't mean it's done going up!!! ~stoney
I saw my first sign of Spring up in the hills of NW Ct. Although the lawn is still solid ice up on the hill where the sun hits most-- it looks like the snow pack has retreated. Dead leaves can be finally seen. There were times this winter in which we thought it would never end. The endless cold has entered our psyche and we do not go out nearly as much. When I say go out- I don't mean to theaters and movies and fun-- I mean leave the house. It's been THAT bad. My poor Jeep Wagoneer left up there in the snow sits at the service station awaiting repair. Nobody took this winter very well. And Here Is The BIG Debate on the economy-- HAS THE FRIGID COLD STOPPED EVERYTHING OR NOT? On 3/4/14 | Briefing.com lowered their growth forecast into negative territory. Our forecast for first quarter growth has turned negative. While the entire decline is due to inventory adjustments after unsustainable growth the past few quarters, it cannot be denied that economic activity has slowed drastically following what was originally thought to be two quarters of solid growth.>>> >> That's a big statement. I am in the camp that is was weather and that we will strongly rebound so much so that the stock market will accelerate and interest rates will begin seriously going up. That has been my view and the only aspect that has me doubting my view is a big drop off in rents here in the NYC that started about Sept-- Before the cold. So there is a REAL DANGER here that a slow down hit us and then we got the cold which masked everything and gave us cover and excuses.... However I look to small signs like this push by the President to fix the over time pay rule-- a comment by an insider probably his spokesmen that said: " We have been trying to bring this forward for years but needed to wait on the strength of the economy..." That was a tell that the administration has numbers of a strong economy going forward once we shake this miserable winter. So was it the cold or not? All I can say is the type of cold we have lived through has dampened the spirits on may levels-- it's been very windy so any temperature you see needs to be lowered buy ten degrees-- this has been the Winter of " Real Feel " and maybe the same can be said of the market. Briefing says: Our analysis of the data leans more toward a cyclical economic slowdown rather than weather. That means we do not expect a sudden surge in growth anytime soon. I disagree. I am dying to spend on something anything summery, a boat if I had a lake a pool if I needed one, new paint job for the house... MY WHOLE INVESTING THEORY OF 2104 has been one of buying companies who's products folks crave now after years of not buying themselves toys & luxuries. This is why luxury car sales are through the roof and why i have placed bets on companies like POOL & Harman. Since these stocks have not gotten away and they were added recently-- These two will be added to the ET portfolio today. and then... 3/11/14 | Briefing.com Goes even more negative on the economy. Again they cite the weather as not being a factor-- We are very confident that weather is not the root cause of the weakness in economic growth so far in the first quarter. That means we are also confident that the economy will not suddenly accelerate as a result of pent up demand. The economy is experiencing a cyclical slowdown. The million dollar question now is how long the slowdown will be in effect. Similar patterns of slow growth in the beginning of the year and stronger growth in the second half of the year have been going on since 2009. That would lend us to believe that the economy will strengthen sometime during the summer. However, during the previous trends, monetary policy was becoming increasingly accommodative. In today's environment, the Fed is actively seeking to reduce quantitative easing. While the Fed denies this, its current policy is a de facto tightening. With tighter monetary conditions, the economic acceleration that we've come to expect in the summer may not happen. Thus, economic growth could easily remain at its current sluggish pace for most, if not all, of 2014. Our forecast for first quarter growth was revised down to -0.6% from -0.3%. >>> For the record I see growth of +.07 % 1st qtr Followed by Growth of 2%- 3% onward.... What Worries Me- - The Shiller P/E ratio, which is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years isn't close to the dot-com bubble high of 43.8 seen in January 2000. Today it sits at 26.0. The mean of 16.5 This apparent valuation of the market along with the overall PE has kept people in this market as bubbles have formed. Trapped them really. Because of size of some of the biggies and prices that have gone onto the $100,'s $300's $800's there is a sturdiness to the market that is an illusion. Google, Apple, NFLX they keep things looking good while under the covers some IPO's are playing tricks offering fewer shares and then bigger add on's-- it's a way of fooling investors. Many parts of this market seem to function along similar lines-- placing a black sheet here (China) and lifting a veil there (Solar) hiding one aspect of the market while highlighting another. The latest data on the use of margin debt at the NYSE is a warning sign. It climbed to a record $451.3 billion, or 2.64% of nominal GDP, in January 2014. In relation to GDP, margin debt is at its second-highest point in history, trailing only the dot-com bubble days when it hit 2.77% in March 2000. The surge in January pushed it past the June 2007 peak of 2.62%. An Earthquake just hit Los Angeles 4.7 .... Google up $8 on the news. ~si
<<<2014 ET PORTFOLIO: CURRENTLY 8 NAMES- 2 MORE TO COME.....>>> GLUU- The game maker for phones and tablets ROSG- The gene sequencer with the scary tests GTAT- The new glass maybe of the i phone MTW- Crane maker HAR- Fancy audio for high end cars POOL- Lets freakin' dig a pool. I've thought about it. MBUU* ( Malibu Boats/ boat maker recent purchase of mine stk has not advanced too much yet. So I'm including it here) UBNT - Discussed the trade on page 1. WI FI amping for the masses a trend not going away. Also MOBI Thinking About- VM Ware & AIG... ~stoney
SELLING MOBI 46% GAIN 19-20% Today!!! Sky-mobi Announces Strategic Partnership With China Unicom Last Price Todayâs Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Dayâs Range Volume Trade 11.87 +1.97 (+19.90%) 11.87 x400 11.93 x200 9.99 - 12.69 4,805,934