SnP, Dow Rally on the way?

I feel this is the right time to go long in the stock indices.
Many people would have been stopped out due to the previous two moves down.
Plus oil seems to have touched bottom, along with the recent Fed minutes.
Seems like the SnP has given a bottom at 1800.

Just not sure if its the right price though.
Also waiting for something solid to base it on, other than my "feeling".
What do you guys think?

Also, why is the NASDAQ 100 lagging so far behind.?

 

Yeah .. Lots of fundamental negative reports. Either way the MM's look like they want to take it higher. So get long and enjoy..the free money.

Traditional pricing of equities might be thrown out the window till elections are over. Earnings season is coming up, even with that negative earnings reports will provide short fuel to push it higher.

 

Long 2037.50.... Calculate how much heat it takes...

 

You are missing the point.
I dont think one should enter at this price though.
Also are you a bear or a bull on the market? cant seem to get that from your posts.
Not that it matters a lot.

By the way what are the dates for earnings season?

 

Prolly because the S&P and Dow are more heavily weighted in oils??

 

Earliest ones about April 10.

 

Right, thats exactly what i thought too, but still felt that NASDAQ was a little too far behind.

 

It's not the absolute price that matters, it's the price action. You should just block out the price and just trade off candles and bars and just use the bars from the last 5 days. That's where people get screwed, when they believe something to be too expensive or too cheap, it creates a mind freeze. Or worse taking entry contrary to price action.

 

I actually meant that i'd prefer to go long at a higher price than here. Bit risky here i think. Also waiting for the ISM and non-farm payroll data. Not sure about whether to enter before the data or after the data though. Also, still waiting for some confirmation for the move up on the fundamental side.

 

Examine your use of the words and phrases "feel" and "seems to have" and "not sure".

As one of my financial planner mentors asks " Do you have a strategy" ?

Is the strategy empirically derived and based on a probabilistic framework ( have the outcomes repeated over a long test sample / what is the range of likely future outcomes ) ?

Are you trading or investing ( are you holding for a short period or a long period )?

Are you using leverage ?

Are you comfortable losing some of the stake that you are using for investment ?

James
director, Quantitative research
stockmarketmap.wordpress.com
Boulder, CO/