I do not see people traveling unless they HAVE to. Sunbirds may forgo their trips to sunny areas this year. Marriott Int. looks over valued to me. No spring training, very little Las Vegas, no football, baseball, hockey, basketball fans going to other cities to see their teams play...Same with college. No matter who is president (or controls congress) people will not travel. So what am I not seeing here?? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAR210416P00075000?p=MAR210416P00075000
You linked to the April 2021 MAR 75 Put - $4.04 MAR is currently at about $96 Know nothing about MAR You are right the travel/vacation industry is not doing well. 1. Why do you think this particular option offers value? 2. Do you know how options work? If you think you are getting the stock for $4 you are way wrong. 3. You are paying for a lot of time value - 6-7 months 4. It is about $20 out of the money If MAR really tanks could be a winner but you are playing it in an unorthodox way. Most would be a little closer in like end of the year and perhaps closer to the money. I suspect you do not know how options work. Hint - It takes awhile to figure it out. Lots of numbers moving all over the place. First time players always lose.
To answer your questions... 1. The airlines may get another bailout. I do not think congress will give Marriott or Wynn bailouts. The employees of those companies...Yes, but give to those two, people would be pissed. During the winter we will come into cold and flu season. Add to that Covid-19 and you have a recipe for a huge drop in the stock price. Covid will come in waves (Just like the Spanish Flu 1917-1919). I have only bought a put one time in my lifetime...I think it was in 2000 (QQQ). I knew there were smoke and mirrors working for these companies. You had companies with 100-200 PEs. You had companies with poor business plans with NO chance of making money!! Anyone remember Pets.com?? I had the right idea, but my timing was off by 6 months...Option expired worthless. Yes, many times I have problems with my timing. People will not travel unless they have to. Just that simple. People do not want to end up in a hospital (in a strange city) if they don't have to. A large part of the US (and Europe) population is obese!! This hurts that group the most. Take the restaurant industry alone...Experts expect 50% will close PERMANENTLY. That is the tip of the ice berg. Do most people think young people will be partying hardy during spring break 2021?? 2. Yes, I know how options work. I've been trading them for about 25 years. I usually stay away from puts. But I can see MAR dropping $30. in the next 6 months. Example, here is Wynn's year high and low. 52 Week Range 35.84 - 153.41 I know Wynn is different, but you get the idea. And no, I do not think I am getting the stock for $4. I know the basics of puts and calls. Things like butterfly and iron condor, I'm out of my league and I know it. Would not touch them. I want my options to be in positions where I could walk away from all trading for a week/ten days (not looking at a screen) and come back and make moves. 3. It is a lot of value...Yes. But will another wave of Covid-19 hit? Do you really see a vaccine coming my years end?? I see MAR like an airline with no bailout coming...I may be wrong, but that's what I see. 4. Again, look at Wynn's high and low for the years...You get the idea. But with MAR, I think it will not just be the entertainment industry that will be hurt...It will be the whole hotel/motel industry. "I'm flying into your town...Can you put me up for two nights"?? That may have been impolite a year ago. But now it may be common. "Let's do a B and B..." Who has disposable income?? How many people have maxed out their credit cards, have huge student loans, business fell apart?? Just me...
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/MAR/options?moneyness=allRows&expiration=2021-04-16-m last 12 mths it was below $50, contrarian me would sell the $50 put for $1+